Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 10 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-11,10014,Daily Model Output (20170610)
2017-06-12,9721
2017-06-13,9217
2017-06-14,7863
2017-06-15,6828
2017-06-16,5725
2017-06-17,5027
2017-06-18,4690
2017-06-19,4518
2017-06-20,4402
2017-06-21,3517,ESP Model Output (20170609)
2017-06-22,3451
2017-06-23,3332
2017-06-24,3127
2017-06-25,2921
2017-06-26,2799
2017-06-27,2632
2017-06-28,2452
2017-06-29,2258
2017-06-30,2086
2017-07-01,1908
2017-07-02,1760
2017-07-03,1657
2017-07-04,1458
2017-07-05,1371
2017-07-06,1299
2017-07-07,1204
2017-07-08,1129
2017-07-09,1046
2017-07-10,978
2017-07-11,925
2017-07-12,886
2017-07-13,856
2017-07-14,810
2017-07-15,772
2017-07-16,740
2017-07-17,704
2017-07-18,666
2017-07-19,641
2017-07-20,613
2017-07-21,584
2017-07-22,559
2017-07-23,537
2017-07-24,519
2017-07-25,503
2017-07-26,490
2017-07-27,473
2017-07-28,460
2017-07-29,447
2017-07-30,433
2017-07-31,423
2017-08-01,413
2017-08-02,404
2017-08-03,406
2017-08-04,396
2017-08-05,390
2017-08-06,385
2017-08-07,380
2017-08-08,374
2017-08-09,371
2017-08-10,361
2017-08-11,362
2017-08-12,357
2017-08-13,356
2017-08-14,350
2017-08-15,348
2017-08-16,343
2017-08-17,342
2017-08-18,340
2017-08-19,335
2017-08-20,331
2017-08-21,328
2017-08-22,321
2017-08-23,335
2017-08-24,336
2017-08-25,333
2017-08-26,327
2017-08-27,322
2017-08-28,315
2017-08-29,310
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,300
2017-09-01,296
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,289
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,273
2017-09-07,272
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,259
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,249
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,234
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,242
2017-09-21,245
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,270
2017-09-27,273
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.