Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 11 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-12,9796,Daily Model Output (20170611)
2017-06-13,9830
2017-06-14,9523
2017-06-15,8030
2017-06-16,6184
2017-06-17,5293
2017-06-18,4873
2017-06-19,4664
2017-06-20,4542
2017-06-21,4400
2017-06-22,3770,ESP Model Output (20170610)
2017-06-23,3506
2017-06-24,3263
2017-06-25,2989
2017-06-26,2827
2017-06-27,2657
2017-06-28,2467
2017-06-29,2276
2017-06-30,2084
2017-07-01,1907
2017-07-02,1763
2017-07-03,1628
2017-07-04,1419
2017-07-05,1343
2017-07-06,1277
2017-07-07,1191
2017-07-08,1110
2017-07-09,1038
2017-07-10,969
2017-07-11,921
2017-07-12,888
2017-07-13,852
2017-07-14,809
2017-07-15,769
2017-07-16,735
2017-07-17,699
2017-07-18,667
2017-07-19,638
2017-07-20,614
2017-07-21,586
2017-07-22,561
2017-07-23,541
2017-07-24,521
2017-07-25,502
2017-07-26,494
2017-07-27,474
2017-07-28,462
2017-07-29,450
2017-07-30,435
2017-07-31,426
2017-08-01,414
2017-08-02,407
2017-08-03,409
2017-08-04,399
2017-08-05,391
2017-08-06,386
2017-08-07,381
2017-08-08,374
2017-08-09,371
2017-08-10,361
2017-08-11,362
2017-08-12,358
2017-08-13,357
2017-08-14,351
2017-08-15,349
2017-08-16,344
2017-08-17,343
2017-08-18,341
2017-08-19,336
2017-08-20,331
2017-08-21,328
2017-08-22,321
2017-08-23,335
2017-08-24,336
2017-08-25,332
2017-08-26,328
2017-08-27,323
2017-08-28,315
2017-08-29,311
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,300
2017-09-01,297
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,290
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,274
2017-09-07,272
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,259
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,249
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,234
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,242
2017-09-21,243
2017-09-22,269
2017-09-23,267
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,270
2017-09-27,273
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.