Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 12 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-13,9992,Daily Model Output (20170612)
2017-06-14,9418
2017-06-15,8311
2017-06-16,6398
2017-06-17,5391
2017-06-18,4949
2017-06-19,4713
2017-06-20,4538
2017-06-21,4371
2017-06-22,4152
2017-06-23,3662,ESP Model Output (20170611)
2017-06-24,3353
2017-06-25,3116
2017-06-26,2916
2017-06-27,2722
2017-06-28,2537
2017-06-29,2343
2017-06-30,2169
2017-07-01,1975
2017-07-02,1814
2017-07-03,1676
2017-07-04,1482
2017-07-05,1381
2017-07-06,1331
2017-07-07,1236
2017-07-08,1164
2017-07-09,1080
2017-07-10,1009
2017-07-11,956
2017-07-12,913
2017-07-13,874
2017-07-14,829
2017-07-15,788
2017-07-16,761
2017-07-17,723
2017-07-18,688
2017-07-19,662
2017-07-20,631
2017-07-21,602
2017-07-22,576
2017-07-23,556
2017-07-24,538
2017-07-25,519
2017-07-26,502
2017-07-27,482
2017-07-28,469
2017-07-29,457
2017-07-30,442
2017-07-31,432
2017-08-01,420
2017-08-02,412
2017-08-03,415
2017-08-04,404
2017-08-05,396
2017-08-06,391
2017-08-07,385
2017-08-08,378
2017-08-09,375
2017-08-10,366
2017-08-11,365
2017-08-12,362
2017-08-13,359
2017-08-14,353
2017-08-15,351
2017-08-16,346
2017-08-17,345
2017-08-18,342
2017-08-19,337
2017-08-20,332
2017-08-21,329
2017-08-22,321
2017-08-23,336
2017-08-24,336
2017-08-25,333
2017-08-26,329
2017-08-27,324
2017-08-28,316
2017-08-29,311
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,301
2017-09-01,297
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,290
2017-09-04,289
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,274
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,260
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,249
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,234
2017-09-19,234
2017-09-20,242
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,269
2017-09-23,267
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,270
2017-09-27,273
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,276
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.