Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 13 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-14,9145,Daily Model Output (20170613)
2017-06-15,8324
2017-06-16,6542
2017-06-17,5491
2017-06-18,5166
2017-06-19,4898
2017-06-20,4598
2017-06-21,4421
2017-06-22,4237
2017-06-23,4054
2017-06-24,3386,ESP Model Output (20170612)
2017-06-25,3147
2017-06-26,2942
2017-06-27,2748
2017-06-28,2553
2017-06-29,2374
2017-06-30,2186
2017-07-01,1997
2017-07-02,1826
2017-07-03,1691
2017-07-04,1491
2017-07-05,1389
2017-07-06,1336
2017-07-07,1236
2017-07-08,1141
2017-07-09,1082
2017-07-10,1011
2017-07-11,959
2017-07-12,920
2017-07-13,875
2017-07-14,830
2017-07-15,788
2017-07-16,765
2017-07-17,723
2017-07-18,692
2017-07-19,665
2017-07-20,631
2017-07-21,603
2017-07-22,577
2017-07-23,558
2017-07-24,540
2017-07-25,521
2017-07-26,502
2017-07-27,482
2017-07-28,470
2017-07-29,458
2017-07-30,443
2017-07-31,434
2017-08-01,421
2017-08-02,414
2017-08-03,417
2017-08-04,405
2017-08-05,397
2017-08-06,391
2017-08-07,385
2017-08-08,380
2017-08-09,376
2017-08-10,366
2017-08-11,365
2017-08-12,362
2017-08-13,359
2017-08-14,353
2017-08-15,351
2017-08-16,346
2017-08-17,345
2017-08-18,343
2017-08-19,338
2017-08-20,332
2017-08-21,330
2017-08-22,322
2017-08-23,337
2017-08-24,337
2017-08-25,334
2017-08-26,329
2017-08-27,324
2017-08-28,316
2017-08-29,312
2017-08-30,307
2017-08-31,301
2017-09-01,298
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,289
2017-09-05,282
2017-09-06,274
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,260
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,249
2017-09-15,246
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,235
2017-09-19,234
2017-09-20,238
2017-09-21,241
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,267
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,271
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,276
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.