Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 14 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-15,8057,Daily Model Output (20170614)
2017-06-16,6632
2017-06-17,5526
2017-06-18,5208
2017-06-19,5069
2017-06-20,4741
2017-06-21,4419
2017-06-22,4269
2017-06-23,4128
2017-06-24,3926
2017-06-25,3299,ESP Model Output (20170613)
2017-06-26,3007
2017-06-27,2709
2017-06-28,2475
2017-06-29,2295
2017-06-30,2098
2017-07-01,1917
2017-07-02,1757
2017-07-03,1612
2017-07-04,1412
2017-07-05,1311
2017-07-06,1260
2017-07-07,1173
2017-07-08,1094
2017-07-09,1026
2017-07-10,963
2017-07-11,928
2017-07-12,889
2017-07-13,846
2017-07-14,805
2017-07-15,766
2017-07-16,732
2017-07-17,701
2017-07-18,668
2017-07-19,638
2017-07-20,613
2017-07-21,586
2017-07-22,564
2017-07-23,543
2017-07-24,524
2017-07-25,504
2017-07-26,487
2017-07-27,470
2017-07-28,463
2017-07-29,448
2017-07-30,437
2017-07-31,429
2017-08-01,417
2017-08-02,411
2017-08-03,412
2017-08-04,401
2017-08-05,393
2017-08-06,387
2017-08-07,380
2017-08-08,377
2017-08-09,371
2017-08-10,363
2017-08-11,362
2017-08-12,358
2017-08-13,357
2017-08-14,350
2017-08-15,349
2017-08-16,344
2017-08-17,344
2017-08-18,341
2017-08-19,336
2017-08-20,330
2017-08-21,327
2017-08-22,320
2017-08-23,335
2017-08-24,337
2017-08-25,333
2017-08-26,329
2017-08-27,323
2017-08-28,316
2017-08-29,311
2017-08-30,304
2017-08-31,301
2017-09-01,297
2017-09-02,293
2017-09-03,290
2017-09-04,286
2017-09-05,280
2017-09-06,274
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,260
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,257
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,249
2017-09-15,246
2017-09-16,241
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,235
2017-09-19,231
2017-09-20,238
2017-09-21,241
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,266
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,271
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.