Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 15 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-16,6188,Daily Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-17,5788
2017-06-18,5642
2017-06-19,5448
2017-06-20,5148
2017-06-21,4862
2017-06-22,4768
2017-06-23,4678
2017-06-24,4355
2017-06-25,4021
2017-06-26,3221,ESP Model Output (20170614)
2017-06-27,2940
2017-06-28,2695
2017-06-29,2513
2017-06-30,2295
2017-07-01,2104
2017-07-02,1928
2017-07-03,1789
2017-07-04,1550
2017-07-05,1439
2017-07-06,1386
2017-07-07,1275
2017-07-08,1182
2017-07-09,1104
2017-07-10,1038
2017-07-11,1003
2017-07-12,953
2017-07-13,905
2017-07-14,862
2017-07-15,811
2017-07-16,777
2017-07-17,740
2017-07-18,705
2017-07-19,685
2017-07-20,652
2017-07-21,625
2017-07-22,592
2017-07-23,568
2017-07-24,558
2017-07-25,532
2017-07-26,515
2017-07-27,494
2017-07-28,480
2017-07-29,467
2017-07-30,454
2017-07-31,443
2017-08-01,431
2017-08-02,422
2017-08-03,422
2017-08-04,411
2017-08-05,402
2017-08-06,396
2017-08-07,387
2017-08-08,383
2017-08-09,380
2017-08-10,369
2017-08-11,367
2017-08-12,365
2017-08-13,362
2017-08-14,355
2017-08-15,353
2017-08-16,349
2017-08-17,348
2017-08-18,343
2017-08-19,340
2017-08-20,333
2017-08-21,330
2017-08-22,323
2017-08-23,337
2017-08-24,338
2017-08-25,335
2017-08-26,330
2017-08-27,326
2017-08-28,317
2017-08-29,312
2017-08-30,305
2017-08-31,302
2017-09-01,298
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,280
2017-09-06,274
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,265
2017-09-09,260
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,235
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,238
2017-09-21,241
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,267
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,271
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.