Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 16 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-17,5871,Daily Model Output (20170616)
2017-06-18,5741
2017-06-19,5650
2017-06-20,5350
2017-06-21,4974
2017-06-22,4763
2017-06-23,4646
2017-06-24,4398
2017-06-25,4049
2017-06-26,3647
2017-06-27,3131,ESP Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-28,2805
2017-06-29,2551
2017-06-30,2295
2017-07-01,2106
2017-07-02,1917
2017-07-03,1779
2017-07-04,1537
2017-07-05,1436
2017-07-06,1384
2017-07-07,1277
2017-07-08,1190
2017-07-09,1116
2017-07-10,1049
2017-07-11,1000
2017-07-12,958
2017-07-13,912
2017-07-14,863
2017-07-15,816
2017-07-16,786
2017-07-17,747
2017-07-18,715
2017-07-19,685
2017-07-20,652
2017-07-21,625
2017-07-22,601
2017-07-23,576
2017-07-24,555
2017-07-25,534
2017-07-26,513
2017-07-27,494
2017-07-28,484
2017-07-29,469
2017-07-30,457
2017-07-31,448
2017-08-01,433
2017-08-02,422
2017-08-03,423
2017-08-04,413
2017-08-05,404
2017-08-06,398
2017-08-07,390
2017-08-08,386
2017-08-09,381
2017-08-10,371
2017-08-11,369
2017-08-12,366
2017-08-13,363
2017-08-14,356
2017-08-15,353
2017-08-16,350
2017-08-17,349
2017-08-18,344
2017-08-19,341
2017-08-20,333
2017-08-21,331
2017-08-22,323
2017-08-23,338
2017-08-24,339
2017-08-25,336
2017-08-26,331
2017-08-27,326
2017-08-28,318
2017-08-29,313
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,303
2017-09-01,299
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,275
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,258
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,235
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,238
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,267
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,271
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.