Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 17 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-18,5546,Daily Model Output (20170617)
2017-06-19,5703
2017-06-20,5397
2017-06-21,4726
2017-06-22,4518
2017-06-23,4427
2017-06-24,4243
2017-06-25,3962
2017-06-26,3626
2017-06-27,3289
2017-06-28,2653,ESP Model Output (20170616)
2017-06-29,2483
2017-06-30,2299
2017-07-01,2132
2017-07-02,1969
2017-07-03,1821
2017-07-04,1584
2017-07-05,1481
2017-07-06,1424
2017-07-07,1312
2017-07-08,1220
2017-07-09,1135
2017-07-10,1069
2017-07-11,1011
2017-07-12,971
2017-07-13,922
2017-07-14,883
2017-07-15,828
2017-07-16,796
2017-07-17,757
2017-07-18,720
2017-07-19,702
2017-07-20,658
2017-07-21,632
2017-07-22,607
2017-07-23,580
2017-07-24,559
2017-07-25,540
2017-07-26,519
2017-07-27,500
2017-07-28,486
2017-07-29,473
2017-07-30,461
2017-07-31,450
2017-08-01,437
2017-08-02,426
2017-08-03,424
2017-08-04,416
2017-08-05,407
2017-08-06,398
2017-08-07,391
2017-08-08,387
2017-08-09,383
2017-08-10,372
2017-08-11,370
2017-08-12,368
2017-08-13,364
2017-08-14,357
2017-08-15,354
2017-08-16,351
2017-08-17,349
2017-08-18,345
2017-08-19,342
2017-08-20,334
2017-08-21,331
2017-08-22,324
2017-08-23,338
2017-08-24,340
2017-08-25,337
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,327
2017-08-28,318
2017-08-29,313
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,303
2017-09-01,299
2017-09-02,295
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,275
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,258
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,235
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,238
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,267
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,272
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.