Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 19 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-20,5683,Daily Model Output (20170619)
2017-06-21,5438
2017-06-22,5275
2017-06-23,4896
2017-06-24,4484
2017-06-25,4020
2017-06-26,3584
2017-06-27,3122
2017-06-28,2806
2017-06-29,2588
2017-06-30,2235,ESP Model Output (20170618)
2017-07-01,2086
2017-07-02,1960
2017-07-03,1821
2017-07-04,1595
2017-07-05,1495
2017-07-06,1416
2017-07-07,1311
2017-07-08,1216
2017-07-09,1137
2017-07-10,1062
2017-07-11,1007
2017-07-12,961
2017-07-13,918
2017-07-14,872
2017-07-15,822
2017-07-16,787
2017-07-17,753
2017-07-18,720
2017-07-19,693
2017-07-20,658
2017-07-21,628
2017-07-22,602
2017-07-23,580
2017-07-24,556
2017-07-25,536
2017-07-26,516
2017-07-27,497
2017-07-28,483
2017-07-29,472
2017-07-30,460
2017-07-31,451
2017-08-01,437
2017-08-02,427
2017-08-03,420
2017-08-04,416
2017-08-05,406
2017-08-06,399
2017-08-07,391
2017-08-08,386
2017-08-09,382
2017-08-10,373
2017-08-11,370
2017-08-12,368
2017-08-13,364
2017-08-14,357
2017-08-15,354
2017-08-16,350
2017-08-17,350
2017-08-18,345
2017-08-19,340
2017-08-20,334
2017-08-21,331
2017-08-22,324
2017-08-23,338
2017-08-24,339
2017-08-25,337
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,327
2017-08-28,318
2017-08-29,313
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,302
2017-09-01,299
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,275
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,258
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,235
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,238
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,267
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,272
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.