Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 20 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-21,5384,Daily Model Output (20170620)
2017-06-22,4870
2017-06-23,4845
2017-06-24,4383
2017-06-25,3899
2017-06-26,3450
2017-06-27,3021
2017-06-28,2730
2017-06-29,2525
2017-06-30,2337
2017-07-01,2016,ESP Model Output (20170619)
2017-07-02,1856
2017-07-03,1741
2017-07-04,1524
2017-07-05,1414
2017-07-06,1354
2017-07-07,1252
2017-07-08,1164
2017-07-09,1095
2017-07-10,1030
2017-07-11,979
2017-07-12,933
2017-07-13,887
2017-07-14,842
2017-07-15,793
2017-07-16,762
2017-07-17,729
2017-07-18,701
2017-07-19,671
2017-07-20,645
2017-07-21,616
2017-07-22,589
2017-07-23,568
2017-07-24,546
2017-07-25,527
2017-07-26,504
2017-07-27,484
2017-07-28,474
2017-07-29,463
2017-07-30,452
2017-07-31,444
2017-08-01,429
2017-08-02,419
2017-08-03,411
2017-08-04,410
2017-08-05,400
2017-08-06,394
2017-08-07,387
2017-08-08,383
2017-08-09,378
2017-08-10,369
2017-08-11,365
2017-08-12,364
2017-08-13,360
2017-08-14,354
2017-08-15,351
2017-08-16,347
2017-08-17,348
2017-08-18,343
2017-08-19,338
2017-08-20,332
2017-08-21,329
2017-08-22,322
2017-08-23,337
2017-08-24,338
2017-08-25,335
2017-08-26,331
2017-08-27,326
2017-08-28,317
2017-08-29,312
2017-08-30,305
2017-08-31,302
2017-09-01,299
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,290
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,274
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,235
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,238
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,268
2017-09-24,267
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,271
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.