Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 21 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-22,4921,Daily Model Output (20170621)
2017-06-23,4725
2017-06-24,4507
2017-06-25,3924
2017-06-26,3475
2017-06-27,3118
2017-06-28,2846
2017-06-29,2632
2017-06-30,2446
2017-07-01,2255
2017-07-02,1937,ESP Model Output (20170620)
2017-07-03,1805
2017-07-04,1581
2017-07-05,1485
2017-07-06,1413
2017-07-07,1302
2017-07-08,1215
2017-07-09,1137
2017-07-10,1062
2017-07-11,1007
2017-07-12,954
2017-07-13,908
2017-07-14,858
2017-07-15,814
2017-07-16,779
2017-07-17,749
2017-07-18,719
2017-07-19,688
2017-07-20,661
2017-07-21,630
2017-07-22,599
2017-07-23,582
2017-07-24,557
2017-07-25,537
2017-07-26,517
2017-07-27,499
2017-07-28,483
2017-07-29,473
2017-07-30,460
2017-07-31,452
2017-08-01,437
2017-08-02,427
2017-08-03,418
2017-08-04,416
2017-08-05,405
2017-08-06,399
2017-08-07,391
2017-08-08,386
2017-08-09,382
2017-08-10,373
2017-08-11,368
2017-08-12,368
2017-08-13,364
2017-08-14,357
2017-08-15,353
2017-08-16,350
2017-08-17,349
2017-08-18,345
2017-08-19,340
2017-08-20,334
2017-08-21,331
2017-08-22,324
2017-08-23,338
2017-08-24,339
2017-08-25,336
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,327
2017-08-28,318
2017-08-29,313
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,302
2017-09-01,299
2017-09-02,294
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,275
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,258
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,242
2017-09-18,236
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,268
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,272
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.