Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 22 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-23,4928,Daily Model Output (20170622)
2017-06-24,4690
2017-06-25,4243
2017-06-26,3538
2017-06-27,3195
2017-06-28,2960
2017-06-29,2801
2017-06-30,2642
2017-07-01,2441
2017-07-02,2226
2017-07-03,1872,ESP Model Output (20170621)
2017-07-04,1631
2017-07-05,1496
2017-07-06,1419
2017-07-07,1308
2017-07-08,1213
2017-07-09,1136
2017-07-10,1073
2017-07-11,1015
2017-07-12,959
2017-07-13,909
2017-07-14,865
2017-07-15,820
2017-07-16,792
2017-07-17,757
2017-07-18,722
2017-07-19,692
2017-07-20,659
2017-07-21,632
2017-07-22,603
2017-07-23,580
2017-07-24,558
2017-07-25,538
2017-07-26,515
2017-07-27,496
2017-07-28,484
2017-07-29,473
2017-07-30,461
2017-07-31,452
2017-08-01,436
2017-08-02,426
2017-08-03,416
2017-08-04,415
2017-08-05,404
2017-08-06,399
2017-08-07,392
2017-08-08,387
2017-08-09,381
2017-08-10,372
2017-08-11,368
2017-08-12,366
2017-08-13,363
2017-08-14,357
2017-08-15,353
2017-08-16,348
2017-08-17,350
2017-08-18,345
2017-08-19,339
2017-08-20,333
2017-08-21,331
2017-08-22,324
2017-08-23,338
2017-08-24,340
2017-08-25,336
2017-08-26,332
2017-08-27,326
2017-08-28,318
2017-08-29,313
2017-08-30,306
2017-08-31,303
2017-09-01,299
2017-09-02,295
2017-09-03,291
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,281
2017-09-06,275
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,260
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,236
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,268
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,272
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.