Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 24 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-25,4336,Daily Model Output (20170624)
2017-06-26,3696
2017-06-27,3342
2017-06-28,3054
2017-06-29,2872
2017-06-30,2687
2017-07-01,2469
2017-07-02,2240
2017-07-03,2073
2017-07-04,1936
2017-07-05,1809,ESP Model Output (20170623)
2017-07-06,1706
2017-07-07,1558
2017-07-08,1432
2017-07-09,1334
2017-07-10,1236
2017-07-11,1155
2017-07-12,1087
2017-07-13,1023
2017-07-14,977
2017-07-15,925
2017-07-16,882
2017-07-17,840
2017-07-18,801
2017-07-19,758
2017-07-20,723
2017-07-21,689
2017-07-22,657
2017-07-23,628
2017-07-24,604
2017-07-25,578
2017-07-26,557
2017-07-27,536
2017-07-28,519
2017-07-29,504
2017-07-30,490
2017-07-31,478
2017-08-01,465
2017-08-02,450
2017-08-03,444
2017-08-04,434
2017-08-05,420
2017-08-06,416
2017-08-07,409
2017-08-08,399
2017-08-09,396
2017-08-10,387
2017-08-11,382
2017-08-12,378
2017-08-13,373
2017-08-14,366
2017-08-15,361
2017-08-16,357
2017-08-17,356
2017-08-18,351
2017-08-19,344
2017-08-20,339
2017-08-21,337
2017-08-22,329
2017-08-23,343
2017-08-24,343
2017-08-25,340
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,330
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,308
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,289
2017-09-05,282
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,267
2017-09-09,262
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,240
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,272
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,276
2017-09-29,278
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.