Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 25 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-26,3507,Daily Model Output (20170625)
2017-06-27,2912
2017-06-28,2689
2017-06-29,2550
2017-06-30,2430
2017-07-01,2234
2017-07-02,2058
2017-07-03,1906
2017-07-04,1796
2017-07-05,1674
2017-07-06,1707,ESP Model Output (20170624)
2017-07-07,1560
2017-07-08,1441
2017-07-09,1343
2017-07-10,1241
2017-07-11,1160
2017-07-12,1097
2017-07-13,1028
2017-07-14,979
2017-07-15,929
2017-07-16,884
2017-07-17,842
2017-07-18,804
2017-07-19,760
2017-07-20,723
2017-07-21,687
2017-07-22,657
2017-07-23,629
2017-07-24,605
2017-07-25,578
2017-07-26,558
2017-07-27,538
2017-07-28,520
2017-07-29,506
2017-07-30,490
2017-07-31,480
2017-08-01,465
2017-08-02,450
2017-08-03,442
2017-08-04,432
2017-08-05,419
2017-08-06,417
2017-08-07,410
2017-08-08,399
2017-08-09,396
2017-08-10,388
2017-08-11,380
2017-08-12,378
2017-08-13,373
2017-08-14,367
2017-08-15,362
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,356
2017-08-18,351
2017-08-19,345
2017-08-20,340
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,329
2017-08-23,343
2017-08-24,343
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,308
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,283
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,267
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,240
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,272
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,276
2017-09-29,278
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.