Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 26 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-27,3062,Daily Model Output (20170626)
2017-06-28,2635
2017-06-29,2537
2017-06-30,2436
2017-07-01,2282
2017-07-02,2123
2017-07-03,1977
2017-07-04,1860
2017-07-05,1752
2017-07-06,1636
2017-07-07,1580,ESP Model Output (20170625)
2017-07-08,1469
2017-07-09,1376
2017-07-10,1274
2017-07-11,1182
2017-07-12,1110
2017-07-13,1038
2017-07-14,994
2017-07-15,932
2017-07-16,890
2017-07-17,847
2017-07-18,809
2017-07-19,766
2017-07-20,728
2017-07-21,695
2017-07-22,663
2017-07-23,636
2017-07-24,610
2017-07-25,584
2017-07-26,563
2017-07-27,542
2017-07-28,527
2017-07-29,511
2017-07-30,495
2017-07-31,482
2017-08-01,469
2017-08-02,453
2017-08-03,444
2017-08-04,436
2017-08-05,420
2017-08-06,419
2017-08-07,412
2017-08-08,403
2017-08-09,396
2017-08-10,391
2017-08-11,381
2017-08-12,378
2017-08-13,374
2017-08-14,368
2017-08-15,363
2017-08-16,360
2017-08-17,357
2017-08-18,352
2017-08-19,346
2017-08-20,340
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,330
2017-08-23,344
2017-08-24,343
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,330
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,309
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,293
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,283
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,267
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,262
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,260
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,240
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,270
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,272
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,276
2017-09-29,278
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.