Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 27 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-28,2606,Daily Model Output (20170627)
2017-06-29,2412
2017-06-30,2346
2017-07-01,2168
2017-07-02,1986
2017-07-03,1844
2017-07-04,1748
2017-07-05,1663
2017-07-06,1558
2017-07-07,1454
2017-07-08,1461,ESP Model Output (20170626)
2017-07-09,1363
2017-07-10,1269
2017-07-11,1174
2017-07-12,1112
2017-07-13,1037
2017-07-14,992
2017-07-15,938
2017-07-16,887
2017-07-17,846
2017-07-18,810
2017-07-19,764
2017-07-20,726
2017-07-21,692
2017-07-22,662
2017-07-23,632
2017-07-24,610
2017-07-25,582
2017-07-26,563
2017-07-27,541
2017-07-28,523
2017-07-29,506
2017-07-30,495
2017-07-31,482
2017-08-01,467
2017-08-02,452
2017-08-03,443
2017-08-04,436
2017-08-05,420
2017-08-06,417
2017-08-07,411
2017-08-08,402
2017-08-09,396
2017-08-10,388
2017-08-11,380
2017-08-12,377
2017-08-13,374
2017-08-14,368
2017-08-15,363
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,357
2017-08-18,352
2017-08-19,345
2017-08-20,340
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,329
2017-08-23,344
2017-08-24,343
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,330
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,309
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,283
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,267
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,272
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,276
2017-09-29,278
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.