Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 28 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-29,2390,Daily Model Output (20170628)
2017-06-30,2180
2017-07-01,2151
2017-07-02,1921
2017-07-03,1764
2017-07-04,1682
2017-07-05,1594
2017-07-06,1495
2017-07-07,1399
2017-07-08,1302
2017-07-09,1362,ESP Model Output (20170627)
2017-07-10,1263
2017-07-11,1170
2017-07-12,1110
2017-07-13,1035
2017-07-14,994
2017-07-15,935
2017-07-16,886
2017-07-17,845
2017-07-18,810
2017-07-19,764
2017-07-20,725
2017-07-21,693
2017-07-22,660
2017-07-23,632
2017-07-24,610
2017-07-25,582
2017-07-26,560
2017-07-27,540
2017-07-28,522
2017-07-29,506
2017-07-30,495
2017-07-31,482
2017-08-01,467
2017-08-02,451
2017-08-03,443
2017-08-04,435
2017-08-05,419
2017-08-06,418
2017-08-07,412
2017-08-08,401
2017-08-09,396
2017-08-10,387
2017-08-11,380
2017-08-12,377
2017-08-13,373
2017-08-14,368
2017-08-15,363
2017-08-16,359
2017-08-17,357
2017-08-18,351
2017-08-19,345
2017-08-20,340
2017-08-21,338
2017-08-22,329
2017-08-23,343
2017-08-24,343
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,330
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,308
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,283
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,267
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,272
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.