Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 30 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-01,1997,Daily Model Output (20170630)
2017-07-02,1840
2017-07-03,1794
2017-07-04,1693
2017-07-05,1590
2017-07-06,1491
2017-07-07,1390
2017-07-08,1291
2017-07-09,1204
2017-07-10,1120
2017-07-11,1164,ESP Model Output (20170629)
2017-07-12,1094
2017-07-13,1020
2017-07-14,967
2017-07-15,920
2017-07-16,878
2017-07-17,840
2017-07-18,800
2017-07-19,757
2017-07-20,723
2017-07-21,687
2017-07-22,656
2017-07-23,630
2017-07-24,603
2017-07-25,580
2017-07-26,558
2017-07-27,537
2017-07-28,521
2017-07-29,504
2017-07-30,495
2017-07-31,480
2017-08-01,464
2017-08-02,449
2017-08-03,438
2017-08-04,434
2017-08-05,419
2017-08-06,416
2017-08-07,408
2017-08-08,401
2017-08-09,396
2017-08-10,387
2017-08-11,381
2017-08-12,376
2017-08-13,373
2017-08-14,368
2017-08-15,360
2017-08-16,358
2017-08-17,354
2017-08-18,350
2017-08-19,345
2017-08-20,340
2017-08-21,336
2017-08-22,329
2017-08-23,344
2017-08-24,343
2017-08-25,341
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,321
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,309
2017-08-31,305
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,283
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,275
2017-09-08,267
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,259
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,254
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,272
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,275
2017-09-29,278
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.