Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 03 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-04,1449,Daily Model Output (20170703)
2017-07-05,1353
2017-07-06,1292
2017-07-07,1214
2017-07-08,1151
2017-07-09,1087
2017-07-10,1035
2017-07-11,982
2017-07-12,926
2017-07-13,879
2017-07-14,918,ESP Model Output (20170702)
2017-07-15,875
2017-07-16,838
2017-07-17,804
2017-07-18,768
2017-07-19,733
2017-07-20,698
2017-07-21,666
2017-07-22,634
2017-07-23,608
2017-07-24,585
2017-07-25,561
2017-07-26,541
2017-07-27,522
2017-07-28,506
2017-07-29,493
2017-07-30,481
2017-07-31,470
2017-08-01,454
2017-08-02,441
2017-08-03,429
2017-08-04,420
2017-08-05,412
2017-08-06,406
2017-08-07,400
2017-08-08,395
2017-08-09,390
2017-08-10,381
2017-08-11,376
2017-08-12,372
2017-08-13,369
2017-08-14,363
2017-08-15,356
2017-08-16,353
2017-08-17,350
2017-08-18,348
2017-08-19,340
2017-08-20,336
2017-08-21,334
2017-08-22,327
2017-08-23,341
2017-08-24,342
2017-08-25,338
2017-08-26,333
2017-08-27,328
2017-08-28,320
2017-08-29,315
2017-08-30,307
2017-08-31,304
2017-09-01,300
2017-09-02,296
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,282
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,274
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,258
2017-09-12,259
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,246
2017-09-16,243
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,241
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.