Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 05 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-06,1192,Daily Model Output (20170705)
2017-07-07,1141
2017-07-08,1098
2017-07-09,1000
2017-07-10,932
2017-07-11,889
2017-07-12,849
2017-07-13,822
2017-07-14,791
2017-07-15,760
2017-07-16,824,ESP Model Output (20170704)
2017-07-17,794
2017-07-18,761
2017-07-19,723
2017-07-20,688
2017-07-21,657
2017-07-22,629
2017-07-23,602
2017-07-24,582
2017-07-25,558
2017-07-26,537
2017-07-27,519
2017-07-28,501
2017-07-29,487
2017-07-30,475
2017-07-31,463
2017-08-01,448
2017-08-02,438
2017-08-03,425
2017-08-04,419
2017-08-05,408
2017-08-06,401
2017-08-07,397
2017-08-08,391
2017-08-09,384
2017-08-10,379
2017-08-11,374
2017-08-12,370
2017-08-13,367
2017-08-14,362
2017-08-15,356
2017-08-16,352
2017-08-17,350
2017-08-18,348
2017-08-19,340
2017-08-20,336
2017-08-21,332
2017-08-22,327
2017-08-23,341
2017-08-24,342
2017-08-25,338
2017-08-26,333
2017-08-27,328
2017-08-28,320
2017-08-29,314
2017-08-30,307
2017-08-31,304
2017-09-01,300
2017-09-02,295
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,287
2017-09-05,282
2017-09-06,276
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,266
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,261
2017-09-11,257
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,246
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,232
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,241
2017-09-22,270
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,270
2017-09-26,273
2017-09-27,274
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,277
2017-09-30,276


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.