Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 13 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-14,739,Daily Model Output (20170713)
2017-07-15,762
2017-07-16,741
2017-07-17,654
2017-07-18,616
2017-07-19,583
2017-07-20,558
2017-07-21,541
2017-07-22,526
2017-07-23,506
2017-07-24,597,ESP Model Output (20170712)
2017-07-25,574
2017-07-26,553
2017-07-27,534
2017-07-28,515
2017-07-29,502
2017-07-30,485
2017-07-31,475
2017-08-01,463
2017-08-02,451
2017-08-03,438
2017-08-04,425
2017-08-05,416
2017-08-06,411
2017-08-07,404
2017-08-08,397
2017-08-09,390
2017-08-10,383
2017-08-11,379
2017-08-12,376
2017-08-13,369
2017-08-14,367
2017-08-15,359
2017-08-16,355
2017-08-17,355
2017-08-18,351
2017-08-19,344
2017-08-20,340
2017-08-21,335
2017-08-22,328
2017-08-23,343
2017-08-24,344
2017-08-25,339
2017-08-26,335
2017-08-27,329
2017-08-28,322
2017-08-29,316
2017-08-30,309
2017-08-31,304
2017-09-01,301
2017-09-02,297
2017-09-03,292
2017-09-04,288
2017-09-05,283
2017-09-06,277
2017-09-07,273
2017-09-08,267
2017-09-09,261
2017-09-10,262
2017-09-11,258
2017-09-12,258
2017-09-13,253
2017-09-14,250
2017-09-15,247
2017-09-16,242
2017-09-17,243
2017-09-18,237
2017-09-19,233
2017-09-20,239
2017-09-21,242
2017-09-22,271
2017-09-23,269
2017-09-24,269
2017-09-25,271
2017-09-26,274
2017-09-27,275
2017-09-28,274
2017-09-29,278
2017-09-30,277


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
  **Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
  **Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.