SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH May 13, 2019 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YDLC2L_F Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of May 13. Model guidance has decreased slightly since the early May update. The current snow water equivalent for the Yampa River is 110% of normal. The weather pattern continues to be progressive with periods of warming intermixed with storm systems. A period of warming with the warmest temperatures of year (5-10 degrees above normal) will impact the basin today through about Friday and will result in an increase in snowmelt and streamflows. However, clouds and chances of precipitation will increase late in the week in the ahead of the next storm system for the weekend. This system will bring much cooler temperatures, chances for precipitation, and sharp decline in streamflows and snowmelt. Temperatures look to rebound Sunday/Monday before yet another cold storm system arrives early next week. It is possible that temperatures may stay below average through at least 5/24 based on current weather guidance. Short term (10-15 day) stream flow forecasts are forecasting flows reach ~12,000 cfs on 5/19 followed by a decrease in flows as flows decrease as a result of the storm system. Longer range ESP model guidance listed below is indicating flows will increase to similar levels (~12,000 cfs)again late in the month and into early June. The current weather pattern and forecast is not a good scenario for a well defined peak on the Yampa River. Instead it is more likely the Yampa River will see multiple peaks of similar magnitude. The current peak to date at the Yampa-Deerlodge streamflow gage is 11,900 cfs on 4/29. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-13 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2019-05-13 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 11820 11867 12435 13787 14744 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2019-05-13 # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 6 6 21 28 31 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 3 8 11 15 18 DAYS Number of Days Above: 12000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 2 4 7 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 2 DAYS Number of Days Above: 16000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-13 - 2019-05-19 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-14 - 2019-05-20 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-15 - 2019-05-21 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-28 - 2019-06-10 9780 10332 11624 13226 14399 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-29 - 2019-06-11 9780 10332 11632 13668 14417 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-30 - 2019-06-12 9780 10332 12225 13668 14417 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-31 - 2019-06-13 9719 10332 12225 13226 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-01 - 2019-06-14 9719 10779 11632 13226 14294 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-13 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-13 - 2019-05-19 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-14 - 2019-05-20 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-15 - 2019-05-21 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-16 - 2019-05-22 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-17 - 2019-05-23 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-18 - 2019-05-24 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-19 - 2019-05-25 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-20 - 2019-05-26 10865 10893 10949 11025 11416 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-21 - 2019-05-27 8400 8548 9357 10843 11453 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-22 - 2019-05-28 7257 8027 9633 10843 11453 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-23 - 2019-05-29 6997 8194 9710 11132 11701 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-24 - 2019-05-30 7785 8498 9875 11208 12945 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-25 - 2019-05-31 8091 8960 9875 11823 13443 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-26 - 2019-06-01 8413 9158 9882 11823 13570 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-27 - 2019-06-02 8413 9387 10843 11807 13754 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-28 - 2019-06-03 8285 9499 10469 12418 13856 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-29 - 2019-06-04 8375 9499 10390 13190 13856 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-30 - 2019-06-05 8679 9731 11043 13190 14292 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-31 - 2019-06-06 9119 9731 11009 12619 14047 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-01 - 2019-06-07 9083 10115 11006 13190 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-02 - 2019-06-08 9485 10080 11174 13096 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-03 - 2019-06-09 9112 9828 11498 13096 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-04 - 2019-06-10 9444 10122 11360 12736 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-11 9234 10177 11498 12435 14270 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-12 9164 10122 11360 12435 14270 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-13 8667 9700 11345 12435 14164 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-14 8169 9521 11346 12435 13590 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-15 7686 9312 11336 12410 13414 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-10 - 2019-06-16 7518 8843 10884 12039 13143 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-11 - 2019-06-17 7206 8589 10312 11912 13043 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-12 - 2019-06-18 7121 8090 9811 11518 12603 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-13 - 2019-06-19 7165 7692 9363 10689 11687 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-14 - 2019-06-20 6947 7382 8941 10372 11864 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-15 - 2019-06-21 6545 7141 8442 10054 11402 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-16 - 2019-06-22 6175 6578 8145 9819 10787 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-17 - 2019-06-23 5900 6482 7655 9329 10784 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-18 - 2019-06-24 5458 6189 7327 8808 10448 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-19 - 2019-06-25 5068 5970 6997 8502 10172 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-20 - 2019-06-26 4881 5628 6890 8076 9855 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-21 - 2019-06-27 4526 5222 6663 7596 9403 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-22 - 2019-06-28 4361 4963 6055 7387 8918 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-23 - 2019-06-29 4164 4714 5698 6952 8639 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-24 - 2019-06-30 3848 4420 5486 6636 8132 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-25 - 2019-07-01 3560 3998 5167 6252 7309 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-26 - 2019-07-02 3320 3823 5005 6036 7032 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-27 - 2019-07-03 3095 3544 4868 5492 6724 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-28 - 2019-07-04 2947 3338 4532 5363 6292 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-29 - 2019-07-05 2821 3087 4431 4892 5584 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-30 - 2019-07-06 2613 2899 4162 4515 5437 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-01 - 2019-07-07 2439 2754 3847 4281 5096 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-02 - 2019-07-08 2297 2520 3525 4230 4906 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-03 - 2019-07-09 2070 2295 3268 3798 4530 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-04 - 2019-07-10 1809 2246 3033 3551 4333 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-05 - 2019-07-11 1716 2066 2963 3531 4332 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-06 - 2019-07-12 1598 1947 2802 3335 3861 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-07 - 2019-07-13 1477 1765 2564 3101 3496 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-08 - 2019-07-14 1390 1608 2317 3055 3417 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-09 - 2019-07-15 1322 1470 2203 2872 3287 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-10 - 2019-07-16 1225 1389 2019 2707 3278 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-11 - 2019-07-17 1150 1345 1874 2526 3167 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-12 - 2019-07-18 1079 1345 1807 2420 2846 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-13 - 2019-07-19 1018 1229 1655 2158 2714 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-14 - 2019-07-20 965 1145 1529 2008 2474 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-15 - 2019-07-21 920 1034 1408 1872 2287 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-16 - 2019-07-22 877 964 1298 1725 2156 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-17 - 2019-07-23 840 902 1210 1598 1965 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-18 - 2019-07-24 803 850 1135 1477 1746 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-19 - 2019-07-25 770 806 1085 1371 1641 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-20 - 2019-07-26 740 772 1015 1260 1540 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-21 - 2019-07-27 707 735 973 1169 1511 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-22 - 2019-07-28 677 701 916 1120 1378 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-23 - 2019-07-29 649 680 869 1059 1305 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-24 - 2019-07-30 622 651 829 1000 1181 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-25 - 2019-07-31 596 626 791 946 1117 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-13 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-13 - 2019-05-26 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-14 - 2019-05-27 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-15 - 2019-05-28 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-16 - 2019-05-29 11780 11818 11848 11890 11932 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-17 - 2019-05-30 11805 11823 11862 11932 12945 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-18 - 2019-05-31 11807 11825 11867 11932 13443 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-19 - 2019-06-01 11807 11825 11867 11932 13725 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-20 - 2019-06-02 10892 10929 11029 11823 13907 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-21 - 2019-06-03 8805 9499 11043 12484 13953 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-22 - 2019-06-04 8493 9710 11043 13226 14047 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-23 - 2019-06-05 8885 9731 11378 13226 14376 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-24 - 2019-06-06 9284 9842 11612 13226 14380 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-25 - 2019-06-07 9575 10138 11621 13787 14484 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-26 - 2019-06-08 9780 10251 11624 13512 14380 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-27 - 2019-06-09 9780 10332 11649 13226 14380 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-28 - 2019-06-10 9780 10332 11624 13226 14399 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-29 - 2019-06-11 9780 10332 11632 13668 14417 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-30 - 2019-06-12 9780 10332 12225 13668 14417 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-31 - 2019-06-13 9719 10332 12225 13226 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-01 - 2019-06-14 9719 10779 11632 13226 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-02 - 2019-06-15 9719 10332 12200 13226 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-03 - 2019-06-16 9658 10332 12200 13226 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-04 - 2019-06-17 9658 10332 12200 13061 14294 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-18 9234 10332 11670 12571 14270 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-19 9164 10122 11436 12435 14270 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-20 8804 9811 11498 12571 14164 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-21 8396 9811 11498 12571 13590 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-22 8151 9686 11413 12435 13463 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-10 - 2019-06-23 7943 9267 11224 12225 13290 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-11 - 2019-06-24 7540 8843 10806 12068 13167 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-12 - 2019-06-25 7508 8843 10312 11552 12992 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-13 - 2019-06-26 7165 7949 9686 10761 12270 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-14 - 2019-06-27 6947 7382 8941 10691 11864 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-15 - 2019-06-28 6545 7141 8442 10251 11402 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-16 - 2019-06-29 6175 6578 8145 9819 10787 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-17 - 2019-06-30 5900 6482 7655 9329 10784 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-18 - 2019-07-01 5458 6189 7327 8808 10448 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-19 - 2019-07-02 5068 5970 6997 8502 10172 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-20 - 2019-07-03 4881 5628 6890 8076 9855 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-21 - 2019-07-04 4526 5222 6663 7596 9403 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-22 - 2019-07-05 4361 4963 6055 7387 8918 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-23 - 2019-07-06 4164 4714 5698 6952 8639 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-24 - 2019-07-07 3848 4420 5486 6636 8132 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-25 - 2019-07-08 3560 3998 5167 6252 7309 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-26 - 2019-07-09 3320 3823 5005 6036 7032 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-27 - 2019-07-10 3095 3544 4868 5492 6724 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-28 - 2019-07-11 2947 3338 4532 5363 6292 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-29 - 2019-07-12 2821 3087 4431 4892 5584 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-30 - 2019-07-13 2613 2899 4162 4515 5437 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-01 - 2019-07-14 2439 2754 3847 4281 5096 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-02 - 2019-07-15 2297 2520 3525 4230 4906 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-03 - 2019-07-16 2070 2295 3268 3798 4530 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-04 - 2019-07-17 1809 2246 3033 3551 4333 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-05 - 2019-07-18 1716 2066 2963 3531 4332 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-06 - 2019-07-19 1598 1947 2802 3335 3861 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-07 - 2019-07-20 1477 1765 2564 3101 3496 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-08 - 2019-07-21 1390 1608 2317 3055 3417 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-09 - 2019-07-22 1322 1470 2203 2872 3287 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-10 - 2019-07-23 1225 1389 2019 2707 3278 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-11 - 2019-07-24 1150 1345 1874 2526 3167 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-12 - 2019-07-25 1079 1345 1807 2420 2846 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-13 - 2019-07-26 1018 1229 1655 2158 2714 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-14 - 2019-07-27 965 1145 1529 2008 2474 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-15 - 2019-07-28 920 1034 1408 1872 2287 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-16 - 2019-07-29 877 964 1298 1725 2156 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-17 - 2019-07-30 840 902 1210 1598 1965 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-18 - 2019-07-31 803 850 1135 1477 1746 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$