SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH May 16, 2019 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YDLC2L_F Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of May 16. Weather: Today will be the last day of warm temperatures before the weather takes a dramatic change that will usher in a period of unseasonably cool and wet conditions. A series of three storms is forecast to impact the region through at least the middle of next week and possibly longer. Temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees below normal. Precipitation with the first storm system appears to be minimal; however there is potential for significant precipitation early next week. Given the cooler temperatures, it is possible that high elevation areas could accumulate additional snow over the next week. As expected, the models are not currently in agreement about where the heaviest precipitation will be located. Confidence is low in terms of the weather beyond the middle of next week. However, models continue to hint at a possible gradual warmup sometime near Memorial Day. Streamflows: Streamflows are expected to reach ~11,600 cfs on 5/19 as a result of snowmelt from the recent warm period. After this peak, flows are expected to drastically decrease over the next 10 days with the below average temperatures expected. It is possible that precipitation at the low elevations will keep flows higher than forecast. The 15 day forecast shows flows starting to increase the week after Memorial Day. Long range ESP guidance is suggesting another period of high flows between ~10,000-12,000 cfs the first 1.5 weeks of June. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-16 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2019-05-16 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 11691 11750 13099 14180 14713 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2019-05-16 # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 3 3 20 26 29 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 5 7 12 16 18 DAYS Number of Days Above: 12000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 2 5 9 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 1 1 DAYS Number of Days Above: 16000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-12 9623 10484 11873 13478 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-13 9270 10467 11770 13478 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-14 8702 10147 12007 12963 14252 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-15 8450 9999 11412 12811 14248 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-10 - 2019-06-16 8217 9713 11257 12519 13990 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-06-02 - 2019-06-15 10009 10956 12473 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-03 - 2019-06-16 9708 10956 12473 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-04 - 2019-06-17 9708 10956 12497 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-18 9623 10956 12351 13726 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-19 9623 10484 12180 13487 14517 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-16 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-16 - 2019-05-22 11644 11680 11709 11750 11790 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-17 - 2019-05-23 11644 11680 11709 11750 11790 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-18 - 2019-05-24 11644 11680 11709 11750 11790 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-19 - 2019-05-25 11644 11680 11709 11750 11790 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-20 - 2019-05-26 10322 10358 10387 10428 10468 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-21 - 2019-05-27 8083 8117 8143 8182 8305 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-22 - 2019-05-28 7325 7356 7421 7472 8762 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-23 - 2019-05-29 7333 7413 7827 8496 9758 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-24 - 2019-05-30 7179 7899 8769 10069 12209 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-25 - 2019-05-31 7755 8317 9410 11014 12933 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-26 - 2019-06-01 8273 8803 9816 11014 13594 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-27 - 2019-06-02 8273 9041 9946 11184 13914 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-28 - 2019-06-03 8487 9041 10156 12231 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-29 - 2019-06-04 8841 9410 10547 13024 14257 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-30 - 2019-06-05 9006 9927 11180 13441 14441 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-31 - 2019-06-06 9250 10062 11180 13099 14441 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-01 - 2019-06-07 9295 10290 11285 13441 14570 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-02 - 2019-06-08 9525 10467 11651 13478 14688 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-03 - 2019-06-09 9400 10467 11651 13478 14688 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-04 - 2019-06-10 9672 10478 11651 13562 14688 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-11 9623 10956 11873 13478 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-12 9623 10484 11873 13478 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-13 9270 10467 11770 13478 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-14 8702 10147 12007 12963 14252 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-15 8450 9999 11412 12811 14248 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-10 - 2019-06-16 8217 9713 11257 12519 13990 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-11 - 2019-06-17 7967 9195 11257 12519 13785 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-12 - 2019-06-18 7994 8780 11003 12123 13664 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-13 - 2019-06-19 8239 8454 10334 11257 12650 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-14 - 2019-06-20 7818 8305 9669 11071 12943 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-15 - 2019-06-21 7499 8272 9566 10950 12282 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-16 - 2019-06-22 6952 7536 9333 10280 11812 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-17 - 2019-06-23 6465 7444 8355 10023 11812 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-18 - 2019-06-24 6166 6941 8172 9566 11645 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-19 - 2019-06-25 5823 6759 7789 9047 10996 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-20 - 2019-06-26 5619 6380 7482 8868 10163 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-21 - 2019-06-27 5347 5872 6967 8581 9491 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-22 - 2019-06-28 5089 5532 6678 8101 9274 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-23 - 2019-06-29 4820 5403 6453 7751 9274 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-24 - 2019-06-30 4453 4873 5975 7657 8586 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-25 - 2019-07-01 4159 4501 5795 6759 8285 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-26 - 2019-07-02 3869 4372 5386 6565 7878 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-27 - 2019-07-03 3641 4075 5090 6139 7457 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-28 - 2019-07-04 3395 3876 4998 5898 7218 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-29 - 2019-07-05 3163 3584 4709 5436 6673 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-30 - 2019-07-06 2926 3297 4196 5049 6276 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-01 - 2019-07-07 2736 3173 4033 5007 5872 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-02 - 2019-07-08 2550 2987 3723 4515 5714 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-03 - 2019-07-09 2386 2873 3504 4243 5280 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-04 - 2019-07-10 2158 2857 3180 3918 5128 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-05 - 2019-07-11 1987 2596 3069 3918 5095 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-06 - 2019-07-12 1839 2410 2929 3741 4442 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-07 - 2019-07-13 1691 2189 2725 3614 4002 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-08 - 2019-07-14 1607 2014 2526 3374 3839 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-09 - 2019-07-15 1546 1826 2364 3331 3763 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-10 - 2019-07-16 1433 1672 2155 3006 3694 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-11 - 2019-07-17 1329 1545 2016 2847 3503 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-12 - 2019-07-18 1247 1517 1956 2695 3208 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-13 - 2019-07-19 1164 1395 1797 2397 3010 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-14 - 2019-07-20 1095 1282 1625 2256 2774 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-15 - 2019-07-21 1034 1156 1453 2108 2528 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-16 - 2019-07-22 978 1080 1411 1954 2332 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-17 - 2019-07-23 932 1023 1315 1796 2138 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-18 - 2019-07-24 890 966 1222 1672 1957 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-19 - 2019-07-25 848 909 1144 1530 1789 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-20 - 2019-07-26 810 861 1090 1410 1681 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-21 - 2019-07-27 772 816 1026 1301 1659 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-22 - 2019-07-28 738 778 968 1225 1514 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-23 - 2019-07-29 701 747 923 1167 1419 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-24 - 2019-07-30 670 712 875 1088 1304 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-25 - 2019-07-31 642 679 831 1058 1241 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-16 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-16 - 2019-05-29 11644 11680 11709 11750 11790 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-17 - 2019-05-30 11659 11685 11713 11750 12568 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-18 - 2019-05-31 11659 11685 11723 11763 13409 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-19 - 2019-06-01 11668 11687 11727 11790 13906 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-20 - 2019-06-02 10361 10379 10468 11624 14034 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-21 - 2019-06-03 8487 9041 10351 12798 14210 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-22 - 2019-06-04 8841 9410 10640 13441 14303 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-23 - 2019-06-05 9006 9927 11184 13569 14441 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-24 - 2019-06-06 9331 10062 11624 13569 14441 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-25 - 2019-06-07 9667 10290 11651 13569 14570 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-26 - 2019-06-08 9882 10478 11873 13569 14688 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-27 - 2019-06-09 9882 10648 11873 13569 14688 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-28 - 2019-06-10 10015 10956 12180 13726 14688 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-29 - 2019-06-11 10233 11014 12244 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-30 - 2019-06-12 10233 11014 12261 14030 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-31 - 2019-06-13 10233 11014 12231 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-01 - 2019-06-14 10233 10956 12473 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-02 - 2019-06-15 10009 10956 12473 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-03 - 2019-06-16 9708 10956 12473 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-04 - 2019-06-17 9708 10956 12497 13787 14713 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-18 9623 10956 12351 13726 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-19 9623 10484 12180 13487 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-20 9321 10476 12261 13524 14517 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-21 9106 10467 12180 13487 14252 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-22 8808 10243 12077 13417 14248 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-10 - 2019-06-23 8537 10211 11326 12855 13990 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-11 - 2019-06-24 8356 9669 11326 12855 13905 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-12 - 2019-06-25 8326 9023 11059 12514 13864 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-13 - 2019-06-26 8278 8620 10397 11326 13108 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-14 - 2019-06-27 7818 8305 9669 11266 12943 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-15 - 2019-06-28 7499 8272 9566 10950 12667 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-16 - 2019-06-29 6952 7536 9333 10280 11812 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-17 - 2019-06-30 6465 7444 8355 10023 11812 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-18 - 2019-07-01 6166 6941 8172 9566 11645 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-19 - 2019-07-02 5823 6759 7789 9047 10996 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-20 - 2019-07-03 5619 6380 7482 8868 10163 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-21 - 2019-07-04 5347 5872 6967 8581 9491 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-22 - 2019-07-05 5089 5532 6678 8101 9274 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-23 - 2019-07-06 4820 5403 6453 7751 9274 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-24 - 2019-07-07 4453 4873 5975 7657 8586 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-25 - 2019-07-08 4159 4501 5795 6759 8285 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-26 - 2019-07-09 3869 4372 5386 6565 7878 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-27 - 2019-07-10 3641 4075 5090 6139 7457 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-28 - 2019-07-11 3395 3876 4998 5898 7218 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-29 - 2019-07-12 3163 3584 4709 5436 6673 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-30 - 2019-07-13 2926 3297 4196 5049 6276 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-01 - 2019-07-14 2736 3173 4033 5007 5872 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-02 - 2019-07-15 2550 2987 3723 4515 5714 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-03 - 2019-07-16 2386 2873 3504 4243 5280 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-04 - 2019-07-17 2158 2857 3180 3918 5128 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-05 - 2019-07-18 1987 2596 3069 3918 5095 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-06 - 2019-07-19 1839 2410 2929 3741 4442 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-07 - 2019-07-20 1691 2189 2725 3614 4002 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-08 - 2019-07-21 1607 2014 2526 3374 3839 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-09 - 2019-07-22 1546 1826 2364 3331 3763 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-10 - 2019-07-23 1433 1672 2155 3006 3694 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-11 - 2019-07-24 1329 1545 2016 2847 3503 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-12 - 2019-07-25 1247 1517 1956 2695 3208 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-13 - 2019-07-26 1164 1395 1797 2397 3010 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-14 - 2019-07-27 1095 1282 1625 2256 2774 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-15 - 2019-07-28 1034 1156 1453 2108 2528 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-16 - 2019-07-29 978 1080 1411 1954 2332 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-17 - 2019-07-30 932 1023 1315 1796 2138 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-18 - 2019-07-31 890 966 1222 1672 1957 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$