SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH May 23, 2019 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YDLC2L_F Comments: This outlook is based on flows from the ESP with model states as of May 23. Weather: The current weather continues to be wet and cold in the Yampa River Basin. Temperatures have been 10-20 degrees below normal over the last week with additional snow accumulation at high elevations. The current SWE at the Tower SNOTEL is 57 inches. One last storm system will impact the region today and tomorrow before conditions improve for the weekend. Conditions are expected to warm and dry out beginning Saturday 5/25 with temperatures trending toward average by Memorial Day. Models then suggest yet another cold storm system over the basin by early next week. This system is not as cold as the systems we have seen over the past week but temperatures will once again drop below average through mid to late next week and additional precipitation is possible. Models continue to struggle with the weather in the long range but temperatures are expected to be near seasonal norms the first week of June. Streamflows: Streamflows are currently in recession from the cold temperatures but are expected to begin to increase over the weekend. However, with the arrival of the storm early next week the rises will be short lived and are again forecast to decrease by late next week. The 15 day streamflow forecast shows flows starting to increase the first week of June. Long range ESP guidance continues to suggest another period of high flows the first two weeks of June. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-23 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2019-05-23 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 11522 12256 13871 15412 16700 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2019-05-23 # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 13 15 19 22 26 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 6 10 13 14 16 DAYS Number of Days Above: 12000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 1 5 8 9 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 3 6 DAYS Number of Days Above: 16000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 1 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-11 10988 11866 13345 14926 16428 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-12 10988 11764 13313 15091 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-13 10581 11514 13530 15091 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-14 10258 11514 13122 15165 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-15 10258 11220 12937 15246 16371 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-18 11245 11972 13701 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-19 11245 12092 13533 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-20 11015 12256 13871 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-21 10645 12092 13871 15412 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-22 10645 12092 13594 15303 16371 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-23 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-23 - 2019-05-29 8661 8701 8733 8778 8821 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-24 - 2019-05-30 8794 8812 8865 8915 8980 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-25 - 2019-05-31 8794 8812 8865 8915 8980 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-26 - 2019-06-01 8794 8812 8865 8915 8980 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-27 - 2019-06-02 8794 8812 8868 8915 9018 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-28 - 2019-06-03 8797 8825 8905 9291 10192 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-29 - 2019-06-04 9709 9865 10359 11075 11786 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-30 - 2019-06-05 10190 10578 11309 12096 13179 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-31 - 2019-06-06 10383 11021 11866 12793 13640 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-01 - 2019-06-07 10441 11375 12256 13629 14527 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-02 - 2019-06-08 11066 11669 12546 13871 15220 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-03 - 2019-06-09 11343 11682 12687 14105 15396 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-04 - 2019-06-10 11363 11866 12910 14926 15753 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-11 10988 11866 13345 14926 16428 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-12 10988 11764 13313 15091 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-13 10581 11514 13530 15091 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-14 10258 11514 13122 15165 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-15 10258 11220 12937 15246 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-10 - 2019-06-16 9962 11220 12418 14687 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-11 - 2019-06-17 9936 10891 12300 14686 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-12 - 2019-06-18 9623 10827 12617 14128 15971 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-13 - 2019-06-19 9925 10826 12092 13290 14491 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-14 - 2019-06-20 9842 10537 11653 12896 14674 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-15 - 2019-06-21 9648 10319 11109 12429 13672 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-16 - 2019-06-22 9373 9838 10891 12092 13046 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-17 - 2019-06-23 8682 9468 10601 11574 12967 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-18 - 2019-06-24 8329 9074 9939 11109 12967 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-19 - 2019-06-25 7489 8772 9843 10667 12351 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-20 - 2019-06-26 7236 8425 9218 10455 11900 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-21 - 2019-06-27 6634 8078 9075 9843 10669 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-22 - 2019-06-28 6607 7516 8723 9455 10440 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-23 - 2019-06-29 6293 6944 8256 9208 10407 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-24 - 2019-06-30 5933 6466 7637 8986 9960 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-25 - 2019-07-01 5728 6047 6938 8550 9628 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-26 - 2019-07-02 5304 5788 6519 8083 9303 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-27 - 2019-07-03 4977 5546 6143 7318 9095 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-28 - 2019-07-04 4662 5071 6027 7256 9049 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-29 - 2019-07-05 4355 4892 5525 7080 7824 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-30 - 2019-07-06 4094 4512 5100 6438 7459 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-01 - 2019-07-07 3798 4269 4917 5811 7371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-02 - 2019-07-08 3541 3950 4553 5250 7106 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-03 - 2019-07-09 3238 3638 4326 4944 6355 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-04 - 2019-07-10 2879 3445 3966 4944 6210 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-05 - 2019-07-11 2641 3370 3802 4778 6076 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-06 - 2019-07-12 2414 3151 3632 4671 5476 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-07 - 2019-07-13 2207 2936 3274 4103 5027 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-08 - 2019-07-14 2094 2681 3055 4021 4752 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-09 - 2019-07-15 1955 2480 2848 3740 4555 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-10 - 2019-07-16 1851 2259 2559 3636 4339 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-11 - 2019-07-17 1694 2097 2501 3325 4126 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-12 - 2019-07-18 1557 1928 2335 3281 3908 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-13 - 2019-07-19 1448 1784 2105 3012 3545 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-14 - 2019-07-20 1354 1641 1939 2752 3305 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-15 - 2019-07-21 1272 1533 1783 2623 3166 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-16 - 2019-07-22 1197 1433 1646 2389 3023 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-17 - 2019-07-23 1140 1338 1530 2168 2583 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-18 - 2019-07-24 1075 1255 1413 2013 2332 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-19 - 2019-07-25 1013 1177 1328 1793 2147 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-20 - 2019-07-26 959 1108 1240 1733 2031 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-21 - 2019-07-27 906 1048 1187 1676 1814 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-22 - 2019-07-28 860 989 1099 1532 1671 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-23 - 2019-07-29 820 936 1039 1406 1596 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-24 - 2019-07-30 780 891 993 1309 1527 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-25 - 2019-07-31 744 837 934 1229 1453 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2019-05-23 - 2019-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2019-05-23 - 2019-06-05 10190 10578 11309 12096 13179 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-24 - 2019-06-06 10383 11021 11866 12793 13640 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-25 - 2019-06-07 10441 11375 12256 13629 14527 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-26 - 2019-06-08 11066 11669 12546 13871 15220 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-27 - 2019-06-09 11343 11682 12687 14105 15396 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-28 - 2019-06-10 11363 11866 12910 14926 15753 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-29 - 2019-06-11 11363 11866 13345 14926 16428 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-30 - 2019-06-12 11363 11866 13530 15091 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-05-31 - 2019-06-13 11363 11866 13533 15091 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-01 - 2019-06-14 11363 11866 13701 15165 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-02 - 2019-06-15 11363 11866 13701 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-03 - 2019-06-16 11363 11972 13701 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-04 - 2019-06-17 11363 11972 13701 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-05 - 2019-06-18 11245 11972 13701 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-06 - 2019-06-19 11245 12092 13533 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-07 - 2019-06-20 11015 12256 13871 15412 16700 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-08 - 2019-06-21 10645 12092 13871 15412 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-09 - 2019-06-22 10645 12092 13594 15303 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-10 - 2019-06-23 10645 11902 12937 15165 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-11 - 2019-06-24 10645 11109 12937 15165 16371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-12 - 2019-06-25 10397 10891 12813 14842 15971 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-13 - 2019-06-26 10297 10861 12255 13493 15087 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-14 - 2019-06-27 9842 10537 11653 12896 14971 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-15 - 2019-06-28 9648 10319 11109 12429 14266 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-16 - 2019-06-29 9373 9838 10891 12092 13046 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-17 - 2019-06-30 8682 9468 10601 11574 12967 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-18 - 2019-07-01 8329 9075 9939 11109 12967 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-19 - 2019-07-02 7489 8772 9843 10667 12351 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-20 - 2019-07-03 7236 8425 9218 10455 11900 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-21 - 2019-07-04 6634 8078 9075 9843 10669 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-22 - 2019-07-05 6607 7516 8723 9455 10440 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-23 - 2019-07-06 6293 6944 8256 9208 10407 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-24 - 2019-07-07 5933 6466 7637 8986 9960 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-25 - 2019-07-08 5728 6047 6938 8550 9628 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-26 - 2019-07-09 5304 5788 6519 8083 9303 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-27 - 2019-07-10 4977 5546 6143 7318 9095 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-28 - 2019-07-11 4662 5071 6027 7256 9049 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-29 - 2019-07-12 4355 4892 5525 7080 7824 CFSD # Interval: 2019-06-30 - 2019-07-13 4094 4512 5100 6438 7459 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-01 - 2019-07-14 3798 4269 4917 5811 7371 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-02 - 2019-07-15 3541 3950 4553 5250 7106 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-03 - 2019-07-16 3238 3638 4326 4944 6355 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-04 - 2019-07-17 2879 3445 3966 4944 6210 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-05 - 2019-07-18 2641 3370 3802 4778 6076 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-06 - 2019-07-19 2414 3151 3632 4671 5476 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-07 - 2019-07-20 2207 2936 3274 4103 5027 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-08 - 2019-07-21 2094 2681 3055 4021 4752 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-09 - 2019-07-22 1955 2480 2848 3740 4555 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-10 - 2019-07-23 1851 2259 2559 3636 4339 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-11 - 2019-07-24 1694 2097 2501 3325 4126 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-12 - 2019-07-25 1557 1928 2335 3281 3908 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-13 - 2019-07-26 1448 1784 2105 3012 3545 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-14 - 2019-07-27 1354 1641 1939 2752 3305 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-15 - 2019-07-28 1272 1533 1783 2623 3166 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-16 - 2019-07-29 1197 1433 1646 2389 3023 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-17 - 2019-07-30 1140 1338 1530 2168 2583 CFSD # Interval: 2019-07-18 - 2019-07-31 1075 1255 1413 2013 2332 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$