SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH April 26, 2020 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YDLC2L_F Comments: This outlook is based on flows from the ESP model states as of April 26 and includes 5 days of deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) and 5 days of deterministic quantitative temperature forecast (QTF). Weather Forecast: Temperatures are expected to be much above normal (10-15+ degrees) over the next week with near record temperatures possible by mid-week before some slight cooling toward the weekend (but still above normal). Little to no precipitation is expected during this time. Streamflow Forecast: The model is indicating that the Yampa River near Deerlodge could have its initial snowmelt peak for this year in the next 7-10 days if these extreme temperatures materialize. It is likely there will be another rise in the river later, possibly to similar levels. And, as always, a rain event later in the spring could cause a larger peak. Given the chance of a peak in the next 7-10 days, please keep an eye on the daily deterministic forecast hydrographs on our webpage. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2020-04-26 - 2020-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2020-04-26 - 2020-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 12750 12971 13680 14636 16729 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2020-04-26 # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 8 8 8 10 38 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 7 9 14 20 26 DAYS Number of Days Above: 12000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 2 3 5 7 12 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 2 3 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2020-04-27 - 2020-05-03 12033 12043 12049 12154 12516 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-28 - 2020-05-04 12695 12897 13038 13325 15075 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-29 - 2020-05-05 12695 12897 13040 13811 16187 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-30 - 2020-05-06 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-01 - 2020-05-07 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2020-04-26 - 2020-05-09 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-27 - 2020-05-10 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-28 - 2020-05-11 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2020-04-26 - 2020-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2020-04-26 - 2020-05-02 9343 9349 9352 9355 9358 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-27 - 2020-05-03 12033 12043 12049 12154 12516 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-28 - 2020-05-04 12695 12897 13038 13325 15075 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-29 - 2020-05-05 12695 12897 13040 13811 16187 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-30 - 2020-05-06 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-01 - 2020-05-07 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-02 - 2020-05-08 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-03 - 2020-05-09 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-04 - 2020-05-10 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-05 - 2020-05-11 11444 11916 12403 13392 16484 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-06 - 2020-05-12 9471 10217 11003 12006 13397 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-07 - 2020-05-13 8260 8966 10185 11007 12309 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-08 - 2020-05-14 7920 8331 10192 10823 12309 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-09 - 2020-05-15 7909 8285 9670 11109 12193 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-10 - 2020-05-16 7955 8633 10092 11007 12186 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-11 - 2020-05-17 6675 8514 10097 11329 12419 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-12 - 2020-05-18 6616 8252 10162 11599 12493 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-13 - 2020-05-19 7618 8252 10263 11677 12539 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-14 - 2020-05-20 7564 8891 10346 11329 13400 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-15 - 2020-05-21 7606 8971 10551 11329 13400 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-16 - 2020-05-22 7331 9126 10576 11746 13400 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-17 - 2020-05-23 7573 9384 10749 11907 13426 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-18 - 2020-05-24 7573 10211 10911 12206 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-19 - 2020-05-25 8231 10352 11145 12269 13668 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-20 - 2020-05-26 8999 10352 11145 12269 13627 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-21 - 2020-05-27 9178 10190 10980 12269 13565 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-22 - 2020-05-28 9277 9979 10827 12269 13340 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-23 - 2020-05-29 9114 9739 10789 12506 13340 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-24 - 2020-05-30 9155 9739 10789 12680 13601 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-25 - 2020-05-31 8237 8648 10477 13233 13708 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-26 - 2020-06-01 7874 8849 10403 12115 13772 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-27 - 2020-06-02 7881 8678 10403 11978 13772 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-28 - 2020-06-03 7917 8469 10360 11882 13772 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-29 - 2020-06-04 7917 8621 10178 12553 13772 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-30 - 2020-06-05 7716 8771 10310 12758 14088 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-31 - 2020-06-06 7716 8684 9999 12320 14135 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-01 - 2020-06-07 7619 8168 10111 12689 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-02 - 2020-06-08 7388 8325 10004 12271 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-03 - 2020-06-09 7048 7887 10004 12271 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-04 - 2020-06-10 6902 8008 10004 11541 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-05 - 2020-06-11 6835 8008 9749 11246 14450 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-06 - 2020-06-12 6835 7911 9416 10965 14450 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-07 - 2020-06-13 6447 7788 9416 10955 14410 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-08 - 2020-06-14 6411 7491 8561 10955 13589 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-09 - 2020-06-15 6297 7491 8541 10955 13023 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-10 - 2020-06-16 6255 7260 8272 10365 12461 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-11 - 2020-06-17 5955 6715 8122 9522 12908 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-12 - 2020-06-18 5791 6630 7671 9067 12582 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-13 - 2020-06-19 5701 6011 7037 8375 12119 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-14 - 2020-06-20 4920 5737 7248 8291 11533 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-15 - 2020-06-21 4617 5207 6615 8269 11533 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-16 - 2020-06-22 4321 4763 6162 8158 10683 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-17 - 2020-06-23 3990 4462 5729 7764 10655 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-18 - 2020-06-24 3688 4187 5426 7429 10416 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-19 - 2020-06-25 3482 4072 5254 7372 10000 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-20 - 2020-06-26 3276 3937 4983 7372 9071 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-21 - 2020-06-27 3185 3663 4735 6580 8739 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-22 - 2020-06-28 3027 3478 4421 6456 8551 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-23 - 2020-06-29 2782 3217 4411 5856 8020 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-24 - 2020-06-30 2571 3052 4277 5450 7347 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-25 - 2020-07-01 2419 2902 3577 5292 6814 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-26 - 2020-07-02 2202 2702 3378 5115 6447 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-27 - 2020-07-03 2042 2491 3297 5115 5835 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-28 - 2020-07-04 1937 2419 3185 4954 5730 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-29 - 2020-07-05 1815 2273 2913 4462 5567 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-30 - 2020-07-06 1653 2157 2577 4323 5209 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-01 - 2020-07-07 1518 1986 2532 4058 5143 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-02 - 2020-07-08 1396 1811 2532 3740 4770 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-03 - 2020-07-09 1216 1620 2227 3382 4470 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-04 - 2020-07-10 1122 1474 2110 3221 4275 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-05 - 2020-07-11 1051 1439 1950 3206 4030 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-06 - 2020-07-12 1028 1401 1813 3021 3855 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-07 - 2020-07-13 982 1230 1664 2764 3635 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-08 - 2020-07-14 946 1151 1577 2493 3375 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-09 - 2020-07-15 904 1085 1472 2250 3228 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-10 - 2020-07-16 857 1025 1418 2201 3082 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-11 - 2020-07-17 818 960 1395 2004 2917 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-12 - 2020-07-18 785 927 1369 1946 2519 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-13 - 2020-07-19 755 883 1222 1769 2305 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-14 - 2020-07-20 730 843 1146 1609 2155 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-15 - 2020-07-21 705 806 1034 1476 2005 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-16 - 2020-07-22 676 771 1034 1384 1903 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-17 - 2020-07-23 645 738 927 1321 1727 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-18 - 2020-07-24 614 703 872 1207 1587 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-19 - 2020-07-25 589 677 872 1136 1478 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-20 - 2020-07-26 567 654 862 1067 1408 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-21 - 2020-07-27 548 630 828 1003 1325 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-22 - 2020-07-28 530 611 784 948 1244 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-23 - 2020-07-29 516 590 740 896 1236 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-24 - 2020-07-30 505 570 711 870 1156 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-25 - 2020-07-31 494 546 679 837 1033 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2020-04-26 - 2020-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2020-04-26 - 2020-05-09 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-27 - 2020-05-10 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-28 - 2020-05-11 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-29 - 2020-05-12 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-04-30 - 2020-05-13 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-01 - 2020-05-14 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-02 - 2020-05-15 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-03 - 2020-05-16 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-04 - 2020-05-17 12695 12897 13040 13811 16729 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-05 - 2020-05-18 11488 11916 12403 13392 16484 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-06 - 2020-05-19 10293 10986 11651 12206 14224 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-07 - 2020-05-20 8676 9966 10911 12174 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-08 - 2020-05-21 8211 9347 10911 12174 13580 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-09 - 2020-05-22 8449 9726 11109 12064 13400 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-10 - 2020-05-23 8718 10135 10911 12006 13426 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-11 - 2020-05-24 9005 10352 11145 12269 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-12 - 2020-05-25 8895 10551 11378 12405 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-13 - 2020-05-26 9261 10551 11385 12680 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-14 - 2020-05-27 9453 10352 11385 12680 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-15 - 2020-05-28 9277 10352 11547 12680 14011 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-16 - 2020-05-29 9277 10415 11547 13038 14112 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-17 - 2020-05-30 9484 10426 11907 13127 14314 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-18 - 2020-05-31 9484 10426 11746 13500 14314 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-19 - 2020-06-01 9484 10426 11746 13386 14536 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-20 - 2020-06-02 9484 10426 11547 13296 14314 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-21 - 2020-06-03 9484 10415 11547 13296 14127 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-22 - 2020-06-04 9484 10370 11541 13296 14127 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-23 - 2020-06-05 9178 10135 11541 13296 14558 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-24 - 2020-06-06 9155 9804 11541 13386 14624 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-25 - 2020-06-07 8382 9317 10883 13386 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-26 - 2020-06-08 8146 9357 11430 13296 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-27 - 2020-06-09 8208 9317 10955 13296 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-28 - 2020-06-10 8272 9317 10955 13296 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-29 - 2020-06-11 8272 9317 10955 13296 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-30 - 2020-06-12 8061 9080 10771 13296 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-05-31 - 2020-06-13 8061 8689 10310 12758 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-01 - 2020-06-14 7741 8454 10310 12758 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-02 - 2020-06-15 7661 8454 10310 12369 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-03 - 2020-06-16 7343 8008 10310 12369 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-04 - 2020-06-17 7079 8008 10310 11541 14591 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-05 - 2020-06-18 6835 8008 10004 11309 14450 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-06 - 2020-06-19 6835 7911 9416 11246 14450 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-07 - 2020-06-20 6447 7887 9558 11309 14410 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-08 - 2020-06-21 6411 7671 8624 11309 14061 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-09 - 2020-06-22 6297 7604 8624 11199 13554 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-10 - 2020-06-23 6255 7308 8355 10386 13139 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-11 - 2020-06-24 5955 7171 8141 9599 13024 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-12 - 2020-06-25 5791 6733 7719 9465 12582 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-13 - 2020-06-26 5701 6011 7411 9465 12119 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-14 - 2020-06-27 4920 5737 7248 8436 11533 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-15 - 2020-06-28 4617 5207 6615 8269 11533 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-16 - 2020-06-29 4321 4763 6162 8158 10683 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-17 - 2020-06-30 3990 4462 5729 7764 10655 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-18 - 2020-07-01 3688 4187 5426 7429 10416 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-19 - 2020-07-02 3482 4072 5254 7372 10000 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-20 - 2020-07-03 3276 3937 4983 7372 9071 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-21 - 2020-07-04 3185 3663 4735 6580 8739 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-22 - 2020-07-05 3027 3478 4421 6456 8551 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-23 - 2020-07-06 2782 3217 4411 5856 8020 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-24 - 2020-07-07 2571 3052 4277 5450 7347 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-25 - 2020-07-08 2419 2902 3577 5292 6814 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-26 - 2020-07-09 2202 2702 3378 5115 6447 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-27 - 2020-07-10 2042 2491 3297 5115 5835 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-28 - 2020-07-11 1937 2419 3185 4954 5730 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-29 - 2020-07-12 1815 2273 2913 4462 5567 CFSD # Interval: 2020-06-30 - 2020-07-13 1653 2157 2577 4323 5209 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-01 - 2020-07-14 1518 1986 2532 4058 5143 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-02 - 2020-07-15 1396 1811 2532 3740 4770 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-03 - 2020-07-16 1216 1620 2227 3382 4470 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-04 - 2020-07-17 1122 1474 2110 3221 4275 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-05 - 2020-07-18 1051 1439 1950 3206 4030 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-06 - 2020-07-19 1028 1401 1868 3021 3855 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-07 - 2020-07-20 982 1230 1703 2764 3635 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-08 - 2020-07-21 946 1151 1577 2493 3375 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-09 - 2020-07-22 904 1085 1472 2250 3228 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-10 - 2020-07-23 857 1025 1418 2201 3082 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-11 - 2020-07-24 818 960 1395 2004 2917 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-12 - 2020-07-25 785 927 1369 1946 2519 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-13 - 2020-07-26 755 883 1222 1769 2305 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-14 - 2020-07-27 730 843 1146 1609 2155 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-15 - 2020-07-28 705 806 1034 1476 2005 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-16 - 2020-07-29 676 771 1034 1384 1903 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-17 - 2020-07-30 645 738 927 1321 1727 CFSD # Interval: 2020-07-18 - 2020-07-31 614 703 872 1207 1587 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at brenda.alcorn@noaa.gov Issued by: B.Alcorn NNNN $$