SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH May 06, 2021 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YDLC2L_F Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of May 5. April precipitation was much below normal in the Yampa River. As a result of another dry month and snowmelt, peak flow guidance has decreased since mid-April. The current peak flow to date was 3360 cfs on May 4. In addition to this forecast information, please see the daily deterministic forecast for the latest peak flow forecast as well as for how long flows will remain elevated. These will change daily based on the weather (precipitation and temperature) forecasts. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2021-05-05 - 2021-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2021-05-05 - 2021-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 4374 5067 5881 6926 8007 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2021-05-05 # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 21 25 30 34 39 DAYS Number of Days Above: 6000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 4 9 DAYS Number of Days Above: 8000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2021-05-28 - 2021-06-03 3746 4296 4919 6175 7080 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-29 - 2021-06-04 3746 4253 4870 6396 7272 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-30 - 2021-06-05 3742 4225 5347 6684 7460 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-31 - 2021-06-06 3804 4225 5173 6687 7080 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-01 - 2021-06-07 3860 4288 5173 6314 7344 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2021-05-21 - 2021-06-03 4021 4504 5132 6396 7080 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-22 - 2021-06-04 4021 4426 5347 6687 7272 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-23 - 2021-06-05 4054 4426 5372 6687 7460 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-24 - 2021-06-06 4054 4426 5372 6690 7460 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-25 - 2021-06-07 4122 4515 5372 6823 7851 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2021-05-05 - 2021-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2021-05-05 - 2021-05-11 3496 3535 3567 3610 3653 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-06 - 2021-05-12 3496 3535 3567 3610 3653 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-07 - 2021-05-13 3496 3535 3567 3610 3653 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-08 - 2021-05-14 3496 3535 3567 3610 3653 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-09 - 2021-05-15 3496 3535 3567 3610 3653 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-10 - 2021-05-16 3496 3540 3571 3653 3740 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-11 - 2021-05-17 3496 3540 3581 3653 3819 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-12 - 2021-05-18 2751 2929 3256 3718 3864 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-13 - 2021-05-19 2751 3129 3405 3828 4040 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-14 - 2021-05-20 2878 3193 3514 3912 4684 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-15 - 2021-05-21 2951 3401 3718 4068 4942 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-16 - 2021-05-22 2951 3500 3975 4268 4942 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-17 - 2021-05-23 3009 3500 4050 4434 4899 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-18 - 2021-05-24 3161 3553 4222 4685 5235 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-19 - 2021-05-25 3335 3720 4331 4714 5468 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-20 - 2021-05-26 3422 4082 4480 4945 5640 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-21 - 2021-05-27 3869 4111 4577 5170 5662 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-22 - 2021-05-28 3690 4168 4504 5132 5943 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-23 - 2021-05-29 3795 4168 4607 5166 6299 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-24 - 2021-05-30 3795 4162 4832 5375 6971 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-25 - 2021-05-31 3599 4134 4807 5624 7047 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-26 - 2021-06-01 3633 4134 4944 5624 6985 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-27 - 2021-06-02 3746 4225 4944 5624 7049 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-28 - 2021-06-03 3746 4296 4919 6175 7080 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-29 - 2021-06-04 3746 4253 4870 6396 7272 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-30 - 2021-06-05 3742 4225 5347 6684 7460 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-31 - 2021-06-06 3804 4225 5173 6687 7080 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-01 - 2021-06-07 3860 4288 5173 6314 7344 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-02 - 2021-06-08 3781 4288 5173 6029 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-03 - 2021-06-09 3727 4288 5173 6036 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-04 - 2021-06-10 3689 4281 5173 6005 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-05 - 2021-06-11 3590 4329 4973 5365 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-06 - 2021-06-12 3686 4294 4833 5365 7343 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-07 - 2021-06-13 3547 4140 4700 5584 7256 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-08 - 2021-06-14 3403 4118 4635 5777 7082 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-09 - 2021-06-15 3403 3931 4596 6085 6531 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-10 - 2021-06-16 3315 3657 4590 6076 6400 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-11 - 2021-06-17 3082 3586 4494 5489 6323 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-12 - 2021-06-18 3044 3502 4140 5067 6323 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-13 - 2021-06-19 2929 3429 4004 4936 6305 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-14 - 2021-06-20 2656 3158 3818 4899 6323 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-15 - 2021-06-21 2485 2898 3657 4645 6034 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-16 - 2021-06-22 2302 2640 3513 4606 5544 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-17 - 2021-06-23 2109 2488 3370 4028 5415 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-18 - 2021-06-24 2042 2325 3168 3772 5306 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-19 - 2021-06-25 2017 2214 3010 3583 4934 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-20 - 2021-06-26 1856 2107 3004 3495 4537 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-21 - 2021-06-27 1744 1956 2755 3258 4256 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-22 - 2021-06-28 1590 1882 2677 3054 4161 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-23 - 2021-06-29 1458 1828 2562 3005 3936 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-24 - 2021-06-30 1328 1546 2394 2969 3659 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-25 - 2021-07-01 1206 1413 2296 2736 3513 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-26 - 2021-07-02 1119 1340 2227 2537 3512 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-27 - 2021-07-03 1026 1200 2029 2421 3192 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-28 - 2021-07-04 929 1131 1857 2421 3151 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-29 - 2021-07-05 856 1050 1750 2330 3072 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-30 - 2021-07-06 787 983 1625 2085 2964 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-01 - 2021-07-07 724 916 1578 1895 2667 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-02 - 2021-07-08 684 846 1465 1736 2491 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-03 - 2021-07-09 632 786 1330 1586 2335 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-04 - 2021-07-10 589 695 1144 1478 2183 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-05 - 2021-07-11 538 620 1044 1436 2052 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-06 - 2021-07-12 524 594 987 1353 1959 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-07 - 2021-07-13 501 567 967 1238 1826 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-08 - 2021-07-14 501 543 891 1099 1708 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-09 - 2021-07-15 478 543 824 997 1683 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-10 - 2021-07-16 464 535 776 970 1614 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-11 - 2021-07-17 448 512 722 910 1552 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-12 - 2021-07-18 435 489 689 885 1380 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-13 - 2021-07-19 422 485 660 871 1308 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-14 - 2021-07-20 409 473 633 769 1230 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-15 - 2021-07-21 394 442 577 722 1127 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-16 - 2021-07-22 383 413 547 695 1033 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-17 - 2021-07-23 373 405 525 659 934 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-18 - 2021-07-24 367 399 532 627 833 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-19 - 2021-07-25 357 387 490 615 775 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-20 - 2021-07-26 342 375 468 569 725 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-21 - 2021-07-27 330 365 464 548 693 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-22 - 2021-07-28 319 357 445 523 692 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-23 - 2021-07-29 307 345 428 513 692 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-24 - 2021-07-30 305 333 404 500 668 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-25 - 2021-07-31 299 323 393 482 665 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2021-05-05 - 2021-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YDLC2L_F # # YDLC2L_F # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2021-05-05 - 2021-05-18 3496 3540 3610 3718 3864 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-06 - 2021-05-19 3511 3543 3610 3828 4040 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-07 - 2021-05-20 3519 3543 3653 3912 4684 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-08 - 2021-05-21 3538 3581 3718 4068 4942 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-09 - 2021-05-22 3548 3610 3975 4268 4942 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-10 - 2021-05-23 3599 3683 4111 4480 5057 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-11 - 2021-05-24 3599 3887 4280 4877 5279 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-12 - 2021-05-25 3361 3887 4362 4877 5468 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-13 - 2021-05-26 3422 4082 4504 5041 5640 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-14 - 2021-05-27 3891 4162 4654 5193 5662 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-15 - 2021-05-28 3906 4244 4669 5193 5943 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-16 - 2021-05-29 4021 4263 4788 5193 6299 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-17 - 2021-05-30 4021 4331 4835 5375 6971 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-18 - 2021-05-31 4021 4331 4877 5624 7047 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-19 - 2021-06-01 4021 4480 5026 5624 7047 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-20 - 2021-06-02 4021 4480 5106 5881 7049 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-21 - 2021-06-03 4021 4504 5132 6396 7080 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-22 - 2021-06-04 4021 4426 5347 6687 7272 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-23 - 2021-06-05 4054 4426 5372 6687 7460 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-24 - 2021-06-06 4054 4426 5372 6690 7460 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-25 - 2021-06-07 4122 4515 5372 6823 7851 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-26 - 2021-06-08 4188 4665 5372 6687 7851 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-27 - 2021-06-09 4244 4686 5372 6687 7851 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-28 - 2021-06-10 4244 4686 5347 6687 7851 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-29 - 2021-06-11 4268 4686 5347 6687 7851 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-30 - 2021-06-12 4263 4686 5354 6687 7851 CFSD # Interval: 2021-05-31 - 2021-06-13 4258 4644 5347 6687 7460 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-01 - 2021-06-14 4075 4515 5347 6486 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-02 - 2021-06-15 4075 4515 5347 6337 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-03 - 2021-06-16 3913 4495 5347 6337 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-04 - 2021-06-17 3888 4495 5297 6085 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-05 - 2021-06-18 3686 4495 5067 6085 7367 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-06 - 2021-06-19 3686 4368 4979 6085 7343 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-07 - 2021-06-20 3572 4288 4936 6315 7706 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-08 - 2021-06-21 3505 4140 4760 6315 7514 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-09 - 2021-06-22 3484 4069 4645 6118 7210 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-10 - 2021-06-23 3319 3927 4596 6084 6584 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-11 - 2021-06-24 3119 3657 4590 5920 6400 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-12 - 2021-06-25 3044 3586 4252 5308 6400 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-13 - 2021-06-26 2929 3429 4004 4942 6323 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-14 - 2021-06-27 2656 3158 3818 4899 6323 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-15 - 2021-06-28 2485 2898 3657 4645 6034 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-16 - 2021-06-29 2302 2640 3513 4606 5544 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-17 - 2021-06-30 2109 2488 3370 4028 5415 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-18 - 2021-07-01 2042 2325 3168 3772 5306 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-19 - 2021-07-02 2017 2214 3010 3583 4934 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-20 - 2021-07-03 1856 2107 3004 3495 4537 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-21 - 2021-07-04 1744 1956 2755 3258 4256 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-22 - 2021-07-05 1590 1882 2677 3054 4161 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-23 - 2021-07-06 1458 1828 2562 3005 3936 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-24 - 2021-07-07 1328 1546 2394 2969 3659 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-25 - 2021-07-08 1206 1413 2296 2736 3513 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-26 - 2021-07-09 1119 1340 2227 2537 3512 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-27 - 2021-07-10 1026 1200 2029 2421 3276 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-28 - 2021-07-11 929 1131 1857 2421 3270 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-29 - 2021-07-12 856 1050 1750 2330 3149 CFSD # Interval: 2021-06-30 - 2021-07-13 787 983 1625 2085 3021 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-01 - 2021-07-14 724 916 1578 1895 2667 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-02 - 2021-07-15 684 846 1465 1736 2491 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-03 - 2021-07-16 632 786 1330 1586 2335 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-04 - 2021-07-17 589 695 1144 1478 2183 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-05 - 2021-07-18 544 620 1044 1436 2052 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-06 - 2021-07-19 537 594 987 1353 1959 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-07 - 2021-07-20 528 567 967 1294 1826 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-08 - 2021-07-21 501 543 891 1132 1708 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-09 - 2021-07-22 478 543 824 1045 1683 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-10 - 2021-07-23 464 535 776 970 1614 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-11 - 2021-07-24 448 512 722 910 1552 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-12 - 2021-07-25 435 489 689 885 1380 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-13 - 2021-07-26 422 485 660 871 1308 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-14 - 2021-07-27 409 473 633 769 1230 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-15 - 2021-07-28 394 442 611 722 1127 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-16 - 2021-07-29 383 413 591 695 1033 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-17 - 2021-07-30 373 405 566 659 934 CFSD # Interval: 2021-07-18 - 2021-07-31 367 399 532 627 833 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$