FGUS65 KSTR 081459
ESGWY 
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
                             

                     SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
          FOR THE GREEN AND BEAR RIVER BASINS IN WYOMING 
                                  
                       MARCH 8, 2023
                            
The 2023 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this 
time in the Upper Green River and Bear River Basins of southwest Wyoming. 

Spring peak flows due to snowmelt are expected to be near to slightly above
average in the Bear River Basin and below average in the Upper Green River Basin
at this time.

It should be emphasized that there is still time for significant snow 
accumulation in March and Apil, and conditions could change before runoff 
begins.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows 
at or above the listed threshold at the given exceedance level:

  Segment                     Threshold   Exceedance Value 
                                          (probability)
  -------                     --------    -------------
Bear-Utah-Wyoming State Line  Bankfull         90
Bear-Evanston                 Bankfull         50
Bear-Border                   Flood            25
Green-La Barge                Bankfull         50
Green-Green River,Wy          Bankfull         25


Precipitation in the Bear River Basin was above average during February and is
also above average for the water year (October-February) total; March 1 snow
water equivalent was much above median.  Precipitation in the Upper Green River 
Basin was near average during February and is also near average for the water 
year total; March 1 snow water equivalent was above median.  

PRECIPITATION(% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                    FEB      OCT-FEB     MAR 1 
                          PRECIP     PRECIP      SNOW  
----------------------    ------     -------     ----- 
GREEN ABV FLAMING GORGE      95        105        115
BEAR RIVER HEADWATERS       130        125        150 

The current volume forecasts for the April thorugh July runoff period are near
to above average in the Bear, ranging between 103 and 114% of average, while 
forecasts in the Upper Green are near to below average and range from 78 to
106% of average.

It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal 
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate 
flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaulated in mid March and 
an updated product will be issued at that time.

CBRFC/Alcorn,Kormos