SLCESPAZ Apr, 2019
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FGUS65 KSTR 031818
ESPAZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
APRIL 3, 2019
ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF APRIL 1 2019:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October-March precipitation was 135 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 110 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
130 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. March precipitation was
100 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 125 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 110 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.
Streamflow:
March Streamflow was around 310 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
270 percent in the Gila, and generally 205 percent in the Little Colorado.
April 1st Snow:
Basin snowpack conditions were near 120 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, the Little Colorado River Basin was around
165 percent and the upper Gila basin was 40 percent of median.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states have increased dramatically over the past
couple of months.
Climate Conditions:
Weak El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average precipitation
in Arizona.
Forecast Summary:
The April-May forecast volumes were between 6 to 120 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, 56 to 156 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basin. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 37 and 119 percent.
SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy19/lc/lcapr.drv
Developed: Apr 1 2019
LOWER Colorado
Period 50% %MED 10% 30% 70% 90% MED
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---
Little Colorado River
Lyman Lk, abv, St. John Apr-Jun 4.2 120 7.0 5.3 4.1 4.1 3.5
Zuni River
Black Rock Res, abv Apr-May 0.03 30 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.10
Chevelon Ck
Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy Apr-May 0.11 6 1.28 0.17 0.11 0.10 1.70
Gila River
Gila, nr Apr-May 19.7 119 29 24 19.7 19.6 16.5
Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl Apr-May 23 110 35 28 23 22 21
San Francisco River
Glenwood, nr Apr-May 2.7 37 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.6 7.3
Clifton Apr-May 8.6 50 16.4 12.7 8.6 8.5 17.3
Gila River
Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa Apr-May 35 90 50 42 34 34 39
San Carlos Res, Coolidg Apr-May 18.5 101 31 27 18.0 17.4 18.4
Salt River
Roosevelt, nr Apr-May 170 134 220 197 162 155 127
Tonto Ck
Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck, Apr-May 9.2 156 12.1 10.3 9.2 9.1 5.9
Verde River
Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh Apr-May 20 56 41 30 19.8 19.7 36
50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%MED Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 median.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
MED median volume for the 1981-2010 period.
All forecast volumes reflect natural flow. Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.
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PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:
MARCH'19 SEASONAL
BASIN % Average % Average
Upper Gila 125 110
Salt-Verde 100 135
Little Colorado 110 130
***************************************************************************
SNOWPACK SUMMARY:
APRIL 1 2019
BASIN % Average
Upper Gila 40
San Francisco 5
Salt-Verde 120
Little Colorado 165
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OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:
MARCH'19
BASIN % Median
Gila 270
Salt-Verde 310
Little Colorado 205
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For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php
CBRFC
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