SLCESGNM Mar, 2003
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FGUS65 KSTR 141434
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MARCH 10, 2003
INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The 2003 spring snowmelt runoff forecasts and flood potential are low
for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. The basinwide observed
water year precipitation rose from 74% to 88% of average during February.
The March 1st snowpack was 69% of Average. The spring runoff forecasts
continue to call for much below average to below average volumes (55%-78%).
The median forecast from a sample population of 15 was 61% of average.
Observed February basinwide streamflow was 49% of average. However monthly
precipitation was 169% of average and a well needed surge of moisture to
the four corners region.
CPC and CDC believe that WX conditions will trend to a statistically wet
period this spring which seems to have emerged when reviewing the February
precipitation numbers. If the trend continues it would greatly improve
water supply condition for WY 2003. It would also raise the flood
potential outlook for April, May and June of 2003.
It is important to note that runoff will largely be determined by
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.
Max Mean Daily Peak Flow Forecast
Forecast Flood Flow Hist. Avg. 2001 Peak Per.of Peak
-Pagosa Spgs. 1310 cfs 11712 cfs 2485 cfs 221 cfs 5/15-6/12
-Durango 3100 cfs 9664 cfs 4675 cfs 777 cfs 5/28-6/14
-Bluff 4650 cfs 41052 cfs 7340 cfs 847 cfs 5/21-7/4
GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The snowpack has improved but is still below median. This far south, snowpack
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood
potential is considered low. However, as soil moisture conditions change, the
potential may quickly change. This will especially be true in the
vicinity of high intensity rainfall.