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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MARCH 10, 2003 

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2003 spring snowmelt runoff forecasts and flood potential are low 
for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. The basinwide observed
water year precipitation rose from 74% to 88% of average during February. 
The March 1st snowpack was 69% of Average. The spring runoff forecasts 
continue to call for much below average to below average volumes (55%-78%). 
The median forecast from a sample population of 15 was 61% of average.

Observed February basinwide streamflow was 49% of average. However monthly
precipitation was 169% of average and a well needed surge of moisture to 
the four corners region. 

CPC and CDC believe that WX conditions will trend to a statistically wet  
period this spring which seems to have emerged when reviewing the February 
precipitation numbers. If the trend continues it would greatly improve 
water supply condition for WY 2003. It would also raise the flood 
potential outlook for April, May and June of 2003.

It is important to note that runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.


                 Max Mean Daily Peak Flow Forecast


       Forecast    Flood Flow   Hist. Avg.   2001 Peak  Per.of Peak   
San Juan
-Pagosa Spgs.  1310 cfs     11712 cfs    2485 cfs     221 cfs    5/15-6/12

Animas 
-Durango       3100 cfs     9664 cfs    4675 cfs      777 cfs    5/28-6/14

San Juan
-Bluff        4650 cfs    41052 cfs    7340 cfs      847 cfs    5/21-7/4



GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The snowpack has improved but is still below median. This far south, snowpack 
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood
potential is considered low. However, as soil moisture conditions change, the
potential may quickly change. This will especially be true in the 
vicinity of high intensity rainfall.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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