SLCESGNM Apr, 2003
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FGUS65 KSTR 041826
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APRIL 4, 2003
INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
As of April 1, 2003 the spring snowmelt runoff forecasts and flood potential
outlooks are low for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. The basins
observed water year precipitation was 85% of average for March. The April 1st
snowpack was 67% of Average. The spring runoff forecasts call for much below
average to below average volumes (47%-66%). The median forecast from a sample
population of 15 was 56% of average.
Observed March streamflow was 48% of average. Monthly precipitation was 75%
of average. The basin is again headed for a much below normal water year with
low potential for flooding if current conditions persist.
It is important to note that runoff, to a large extent, will be determined by
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.
Max Mean Daily Peak Flow Forecast
Forecast Flood Flow Hist. Avg. 2001 Peak Per.of Peak
-Pagosa Spgs. 1150 cfs 11712 cfs 2485 cfs 221 cfs 5/15-6/12
-Durango 2650 cfs 9664 cfs 4675 cfs 777 cfs 5/28-6/14
-Bluff 3100 cfs 41052 cfs 7340 cfs 847 cfs 5/21-7/4
GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The snowpack has improved but is still below median. This far south, snowpack
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood
potential is considered low. However, as soil moisture conditions change, the
potential may quickly change. This will especially be true in the
vicinity of high intensity rainfall.