FGUS65 KSTR 071918
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAY 7,2003

              INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

As of May 1, 2003 the spring snowmelt runoff forecasts and flood potential 
outlooks are low for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. Observed 
April precipitation was 31% of average. The May 1, snowpack was 52% of Average. 
The spring runoff forecasts call for much below average volumes (20%-57%). 
The median forecast from a sample population of 15 was 45% of average. 

Observed March streamflow was 50% of average. This low number despite the fact 
that melt occurred during the last 10 days of April. Snowpack decreased in 
April by 16% of average or 22% of this year total snow pack. Seasonal 
precipitation is now at 81% of average. Despite the reasonable seasonal numbers
the basin is again headed for a much below normal water year with low potential
for flooding if current conditions persist.

It is important to note that runoff, to a large extent, will be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events occurring during May and June.


                 Max Mean Daily Peak Flow Forecast


       Forecast    Flood Flow   Hist. Avg.   2001 Peak  Per.of Peak   
San Juan
-Pagosa Spgs.   920 cfs     11712 cfs    2485 cfs     221 cfs    5/15-6/12

Animas 
-Durango       2450 cfs     9664 cfs    4675 cfs      777 cfs    5/28-6/14

San Juan
-Bluff        2950 cfs    41052 cfs    7340 cfs      847 cfs    5/21-7/4



CBRFC/BMB


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