FGUS65 KSTR 062012
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JUN 6,2003

              INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Near record heat during the last two weeks of May had the greatest influence
on observed streamflow and the current volumetric and peak flow forecasts. The 
efficency of the melt increased monthly flows to 71% of average but the high 
temperatures accentuated the peak flows to near average.  The spring flood 
potential remains below average.
 
                      Max Mean Daily Peak Flow Forecast
      
Maximum mean daily (MMD) peak flows were observed for the following 3 rivers.
San Juan River at Pagosa Spring on 5/29, 2039 cfsd. MMD on the Animas at Durango 
were observed at 4160 cfsc on 5/29 and the MMD for the San Juan River at Bluff 
were 3540 cfsd on 5/30.  

          End of Season - Water Supply Information
  
Observed May precipitation was 48% of average. The June 1, snowpack has dwindled 
to 9% of average. As of June 6th most SNOTEL stations are dry. The volume 
forecasts continue to call for much below average volumes (29%-56%) and the 
streams are all in recession at this time. The median forecast from a sample 
population of 15 was 49% of average. 

It is important to note that runoff and streamflow, between June and July will 
be determined by the strength of this years monsoon, June 15th begins the 
official fire weather season and along with it the chance of heavy convective 
rains and the potential for monsoonal flash floods. 


This product will be discontinued until January 2004


       Flood Flow   Hist. Avg.   2003 Peak   Time of Peak   
San Juan
-Pagosa Spgs.  11712 cfs    2485 cfs     2039 cfs    5/29

Animas 
-Durango       9664 cfs     4675 cfs     4160 cfs    5/29

San Juan
-Bluff        41052 cfs    7340 cfs     3840 cfs    5/31 *


* Note - The Bluff MMD peak is regulated by Navajo Reservoir.


CBRFC/BMB


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