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ESGNM 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 6, 2004

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2004 spring runoff forecasts and flood potential is average at this time
for streams in the San Juan Basin. The Upper San Juan has a healthy snowpack
and given the right spring conditions could pose a flooding threat but it is
far to early to tell. The observed water year precipitation to date is 77% of
average. Snow water equivalents as of today are 137% in the Upper San Juan and
117% in the Animas drainage. The spring runoff forecasts call for average to 
just above average depending on location. The median forecast from the sample
population of 15 is 110% of average. The range was 90-115% of average. 

Observed December streamflow was 76% of average up from 35% and 55% in Oct.and Nov

The current CPC climate forecast indicate equal chance of precipitation with 
temperature tending to be above normal throughout of the basin during the JFM
period. The trend for the next two weeks is unclear however it appear a low 
amplitude ridge may build over the Rocky Mountains and reduce precipitation 
activity. Snow totals are currently 58% of the seasonal peak which is well ahead
of schedule in terms of average. Normal is 41%. Given continued wet and cold 
conditions it appear that the San Juan might have an average year (90-110%) 
for Water Year 2004.

It is important to note that it is very early in the snow accumulation season 
and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.


GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Dry conditions continue for the 2004 season. However, this far south, snowpack
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood potential
is considered low. Yet, the potential may quickly change to high in the vicinity
of high intensity rainfall.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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