FGUS65 KSTR 132129
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 5, 2004

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2004 spring runoff forecasts and flood potential remains average for 
streams in the San Juan Basin. 

Runoff forecast throughout the San Juan Basin were reduced slightly based
on a January data. Snowpack conditions February 1st range from 62 to 124 
percent of average. The best conditions are in the Upper San Juan above Navajo. 
Lower elevations sites remain fairly dry.The Animas and surrounding drainages
are near average. April through July runoff volumes are expected to range from 
82-110 percent of the 1971-2000 average. The median forecast was 103% of average.  

Observed January streamflow edged up slightly to 78% of average.

The current CPC climate forecast indicate equal chance of precipitation with 
temperature tending to be slightly above normal throughout of the basin during 
the FMA forecast period. The snowpack is currently 68% of the seasonal average
peak which is slightly above normal for February 1. Current indexed snotel sites
indicate 105% of average snow in the San Juan Basin.

It is important to note that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be 
determined by hydrometeorologic events occurring during the April through May melt.


GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Dry conditions continue for the 2004 season. However, this far south, snowpack
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood potential
is considered low. Yet, the potential may quickly change to high in the vicinity
of high intensity rainfall.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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