FGUS65 KSTR 032109
ESGNM 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAR 5, 2004

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2004 spring runoff forecasts and flood potential remains average for 
streams in the San Juan Basin. 

Runoff forecast throughout the San Juan Basin were raised slightly based
on a february data. Snowpack conditions March 1st range from 98 to 124 
percent of average. The best conditions are in the Upper San Juan above
Navajo at 113% of average. However lower elevations sites received much 
above average precipitition during February. The Animas and surrounding 
drainages remain near average.Observed January streamflow was 75% of average
April through July runoff volumes are expected to range from 82-113 percent
of the 1971-2000 average. The median of 15 forecast was 109% of average.  

The current CPC climate forecast continues to indicate equal chance distribution 
for precipitation with temperature tending to be slightly above normal during 
the MAM time period. The snowpack is nearing its seasonal average peak at 87% of
average. Current indexed snotel sites indicate 108% of average in the basin. 

It is important to note that the threat of spring floods due to snow melt runoff 
will largely be determined by weather events occuring during the April through May 
time frame.

GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Dry conditions continue for the 2004 season. However, this far south, snowpack
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood potential
is considered low. Yet, the potential may quickly change to high in the vicinity
of high intensity rainfall.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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