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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAR 10, 2004

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2004 spring runoff forecasts and flood potential remain average to
above average for selected streams in the San Juan River Basin. 

Snowpack conditions March 10, range from 93 to 116 percent of average
and indexed for the entire basin are 101% of Average. The best conditions
(greatest flood potential)is in the Upper San Juan above Navajo. Much above
average precipitition occurred during February averaging 148%. Observed January
streamflow was 75% of average, still low due to consecutive years of drought. 
April through July runoff volumes are expected to range from 82-113 percent of 
the 1971-2000 average. The median of 15 forecast was 109% of average.  

The current CPC climate forecast continues to indicate an equal chance distribution 
for precipitation with temperature tending to be slightly above normal during 
the MAM time period. The snowpack is nearing its seasonal peak at 88% of
average. 

It is important to note that threat of spring floods due to snow melt runoff 
will largely be determined by hydrometeorological events occuring during April
through May time frame. Currently the weather has warmed and snow is beginning to 
melt early.

GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Dry conditions continue for the 2004 season. However, this far south, snowpack
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood potential
is considered low. Yet, the potential may quickly change to high in the vicinity
of high intensity rainfall.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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