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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 6, 2004

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2004 spring runoff forecasts and flood potential is below average for 
streams Throughout the San Juan River Basin. 

Following an extraordinarily warm March most of the low elevation snow is gone
and the majority of snow between 6000-9000 feet is thin. Snowpacks decreased on
average between 20-30 percent from March 1.  March 1 forecast were near average
however now the April through July runoff volumes are much lowerer ranging from
26-77 percent of the 1971-2000 average. The median of 16 forecast was 69% of average.
Flows for the month of March as expected were high at 170% of average. Precipitation
totals for the SJ Basin for March were 27% of average, extremely low for March.

The current short term CPC climate forecast (6-14days) indicates a slightly 
above average possibility of precipitation and neutral, no indicators present,regarding 
temperature forecast for SW Colorado. The AMJ forecast calls for above normal 
temperatures and EC (Equal Chances)of below, neutral or above conditions in both
precipitation and temperature. The snowpack with continued unseasonably warm temps.
will produce the fifth consecutive year of below average runoff, with little or no
threat for flooding.

It is important to note that threat of spring floods due to snow melt runoff 
will largely be determined by hydrometeorological events occuring during the April
through late May time frame.

CBRFC/BMB


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