FGUS65 KSTR 061719
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 6, 2005

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2005 spring runoff flood potential is average to above average at this time
for streams in the San Juan River Basin. The Upper San Juan and Animas River
basins both have an above average snowpack which is building rapidly. Given 
the right spring conditions this could pose a flooding threat, however it is 
far too early to predict now. The observed water year precipitation to date is 
97% of average. Snow water equivalents as of today are 135% in the Upper San 
Juan and 135% in the Animas drainages.Observed December streamflow and seasonal 
numbers were 134% and 135% respectively. These are the best flows we have seen 
this time of year for a long time. The spring runoff forecasts call for average 
to above average runoff depending on location.The median forecast from the 
sample population of 15 is 117% of average. The range was 91-153% of average. 

The current CPC climate forecast indicate the possibility of above normal 
chances of precipitation with a definite shift to above normal temperatures
throughout of the basin during the JFM period. The trend for the next two week
period is for above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. This 
bodes well for building a strong February 1 snowpack. 

It is important to note that it is very early in the snow accumulation season 
and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.


CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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