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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 4, 2005

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2005 spring runoff flood potential is above average for streams throughout
the San Juan Basin. The Upper San Juan and Animas basins both have much above 
average snow pack conditions.The observed water year precipitation to date is
134% of average. Snow water equivalents are 175% in the Upper San Juan and 156%
in the Animas drainage.Observed January streamflow and seasonal numbers were 
197% and 149% respectively. These flows indicate saturated soil moisture 
conditions, a leading contributor to high spring runoff and flood potential.
The spring runoff volume forecasts call for above average to much above average
runoff. The median forecast from the sample population of 15 was 147% of 
average. The range was 119-260% of average. 

The current CPC climate forecast suggests the possibility of EC precipitation
in February and above average chances of precipitation in the seasonal forecast
for FMA. Both forecast (Feb., FMA) indicate an above average trend for 
temperature. The trend for the next two week period indicates a shift to above
average chances of precipitation as the blocking high that's set up over the 
west starts to break down, however it doesn't appear to be a lasting change. 

It is important to note that it is very early in the snow accumulation season 
and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.



CBRFC/BMB


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