SLCESGNM Feb, 2005
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FGUS65 KSTR 061724
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 6, 2005 - UPDATE GILA ADDED
INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The 2005 spring runoff flood potential is above average for streams throughout
the San Juan Basin. The Upper San Juan and Animas basins both have much above
average snow pack conditions.The observed water year precipitation to date is
134% of average. Snow water equivalents are 175% in the Upper San Juan and 156%
in the Animas drainage.Observed January streamflow and seasonal numbers were
197% and 149% respectively. These flows indicate saturated soil moisture
conditions, a leading contributor to high spring runoff and flood potential.
The spring runoff volume forecasts call for above average to much above average
runoff. The median forecast from the sample population of 15 was 147% of
average. The range was 119-260% of average.
The current CPC climate forecast suggests the possibility of EC precipitation
in February and above average chances of precipitation in the seasonal forecast
for FMA. Both forecast (Feb., FMA) indicate an above average trend for
temperature. The trend for the next two week period indicates a shift to above
average chances of precipitation as the blocking high that's set up over the
west starts to break down, however it doesn't appear to be a lasting change.
It is important to note that it is very early in the snow accumulation season
and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.
GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
This far south, snowpack is usually not the primary cause of flooding.
Above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are expected
during March, April, and May. At this time, the basinwide
flood potential is considered moderate. However, this could change
quickly---to a high potential---in the vicinity of heavy rains.