FGUS65 KSTR 052140
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 5, 2005 

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2005 spring runoff flood potential remains above average for streams 
throughout the San Juan Basin. The Upper San Juan and Animas basins continue
to have much above average snow pack.. The observed monthly precipitation for
March was 88% of average. Snow water equivalents declined slightly to 148% 
in the upper San Juan, 134% in the Animas drainage and 140% for the San Juan
Basin. Observed March monthly and seasonal streamflow numbers were 127% and 
153% respectively. The spring runoff volume forecasts call for above average
to much above average runoff. The median forecast from the sample population 
of 15 was 155% of average. The range was 123-359% of average. 

It is important to note that threat of spring floods due to snow melt runoff 
will largely be determined by hydrometeorological events occuring during the 
April through late May time frame.

Computed peak flows for three selected points are as follows:


   2004          2005         
River/Site       Peak/Date    Fcst Peak   Normal Peak     Historic Peak
   CFS           CFS        Period            CFS
___________      _________    _________   ___________     ____________

Animas -         3590, 6/8       6100      5/20 - 6/12        10700
Durango

San Juan -       Gage Removed, Forecast Discontinued
Pagosa Springs

San Juan -       4420, 4/6      12200     5/5 - 6/20         15600
Bluff
  

CBRFC/BMB


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