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ESGNM 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JUN 3, 2005 

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2005 spring runoff flood potential has diminished as streams throughout
the San Juan Basin have mostly peaked due to a very warm middle to end of May. 
Snowpacks at high elevation are still well above average above Navajo Reservoir
and the potential for secondary peaks could bring another wave of high flows
to the region. At this time these secondary peaks we feel will be lower than
those at the end of May and pose less of a flooding threat.

Precipitation was much below average for the month of May, while snowpacks 
remained in the much above average catagory for the Upper San Juan, the La 
Plata, Vallecito and Lemon drainages. The Animas snowpack is currently at 
average and this river in particular historically has a secondary 
peak once the temperatures rise in June. If heavy rain falls in these drainages
during the next 4 weeks there is still good potential for flooding.

It is important to note that threat of additional spring floods due to snow 
melt runoff will largely be determined by hydrometeorological events occuring 
during the next month, mainly in response to monsoonal rains or unseasonably 
high temperatures.

Snowmelt Peak Flows to date calculated as Max Mean Daily Flows are:


   2004          2005         
River/Site       Peak/Date       Peak      Normal Peak     Historic Peak
   CFS           CFS          Period            CFS
___________      _________    _________     ___________     ____________

Animas -         3590, 6/8       8030 5/25    5/20 - 6/12      10700
Durango


San Juan -       4420, 4/6      12100 5/28    5/5 - 6/20       15600
Bluff
  

San Juan - 1860, 5/11 4500 5/23    5/13 - 6/8        4640       
Pagosa Spring

CBRFC/BMB


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