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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 2, 2006

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2006 spring runoff flood potential remains much below average to below 
average at this time for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. The 
Upper San Juan and Animas River basins are both suffering one of their worst 
seasons in the period 1961-2005. The observed water year precipitation to date 
is 58% of average. Snow water equivalents as of February 1 were 42% in the Upper 
San Juan and 58% in the Animas which was only a minor improvement over December. 
Observed December streamflow was 62% of average.  The spring runoff forecasts 
range from 8%-73% of average with a median forecast of 56% of average.

CPC officially declared a weak La Nina event to be in progress on January 31.
The trend as has been observed is for dry conditions with moderate temperatures.
If the Southwest continues in this trend it will be a very dry season with very
low flood potential  

It is important to note that it is very early in the snow accumulation season 
and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several months. If current
patterns persist then we will have a very low threat of spring flooding from 
snow melt runoff.


GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2006 Water Year continues to be dry with essentially no snow cover at this 
time. This far south, snowpack is usually not the primary cause of flooding.
At this time, the flood potential is considered low. Yet, the potential may
quickly change to high in the vicinity of high intensity rainfall.  However,
there is no rain in the forecast at this time.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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