FGUS65 KSTR 032055
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAR 3, 2006 - CORRECTED

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2006 spring runoff flood potential is much below average for streams 
throughout the San Juan River Basin. The Upper San Juan and Animas River basins 
are both suffering one of their worst seasons in the period 1961-2005. The 
observed water year precipitation to date is 50% of average. Snow water 
equivalents as of March 1 were 40% in the Upper San Juan and 50% in the Animas.
Observed February streamflow was 56% of average.  The spring runoff forecasts 
range from 5%-63% of average with a median forecast of 40% of average.

Climatically we are currently in a weak La Nina period. The March, April, May 
climate forecasts from CPC indicate high probabilities of continued above normal
temperature and below normal precipitation. If this forecast verifies the flood
potential from snow melt runoff will be very low.  

It is important to note that the spring flood threat due to snow melt runoff will 
largely bedetermined by hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several 
months.

Peak flow information for the 2005 water year and forecast for the 2006 spring snomelt
runoff are as follows:

SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS
2005 Peak 4420cfsd 5/23
2006 50% Exceedance Peak Forecast 1470cfsd
Average time of peak 5 15 - 6 12

ANIMAS - DURANGO
2005 Peak 8070cfsd 5/25
2006 50% Exceedance Peak Forecast 3150cfsd
average time of peak 5 28 - 6 14


SAN JUAN - BLUFF, NR 
2005 Peak 12100cfsd 5 28
2006 50% Exceedance Peak Forecast 6600cfsd
average time of peak 5 21 - 7 4



GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2006 Water Year continues to be dry with essentially no snow cover at this 
time. This far south, snowpack is usually not the primary cause of flooding.
At this time, the flood potential is considered low. Yet, the potential may
quickly change to high in the vicinity of high intensity rainfall.  

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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