FGUS65 KSTR 032040
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAY 5, 2006 

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2006 spring runoff flood potential remains below average for streams 
throughout the San Juan River Basin. Snowmelt runoff began slowly during April in the
Upper San Juan and Animas River basins. April flow observations were on the low side
of average. Monthly precipitation was 66% of average. Observed water year precipitation
declined to 62% of average. Snow water equivalents as of May 1 were 52% in the Upper 
San Juan and 51% in the Animas. The spring runoff forecasts range from 16%-68% of average
with a median forecast of 52% of average.

Given the basin wide conditions Currently however the spring snowmelt flood potential remains
below average.  It should be noted that the spring flood threat due to snow melt runoff will be 
determined by hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next 6 weeks. Very high temperatures
and high elevation rains could trigger flooding but this senario remains unlikely.

Peak flow information for the 2005 water year and forecast for the 2006 spring snomelt
runoff are as follows:


SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS
2005 Peak 4420cfsd 5/23
2006 50% Exceedance Peak Forecast 1650cfsd
Average time of peak 5 15 - 6 12

ANIMAS - DURANGO
2005 Peak 8070cfsd 5/25
2006 50% Exceedance Peak Forecast 3300cfsd
average time of peak 5 28 - 6 14


SAN JUAN - BLUFF, NR 
2005 Peak 12100cfsd 5 28
2006 50% Exceedance Peak Forecast 7600cfsd
average time of peak 5 21 - 7 4


CBRFC/BMB
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