SLCESGNM Mar, 2007
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FGUS65 KSTR 061826
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAR 6, 2007
INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The 2007 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
and rivers throughout the San Juan River Basin. The observed water year
precipitation to date is 97% of average. Snow water equivalent as of
March 1 was 84% in the Upper San Juan and 78% in the Animas.
It is important to note that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely
be determined by hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several months.
If current patterns persist then we will have a very low threat of spring flooding
from snow melt runoff.
Computed peak flows for three selected points are as follows:
River/Site Peak/Date Fcst Peak Normal Peak Historic Peak
CFS CFS Period CFS
___________ _________ _________ ___________ ____________
San Juan - 1420, 5/21 2300 5/15 - 6/12 4640
Animas - 3140, 5/25 3600 5/28 - 6/14 10700
Animas - 3130 5/25 3800 5/31 - 6/15 11000
San Juan - 7070, 6/9 8100* 5/21 - 7/4 15600
* - Peak flow forecast on the San Juan below Navajo Reservoir include
the maximum spring releases for 2007 by 28 days of ramping up to
5000 cfs, 21 days at 5000 cfs and 14 days ramping down to 500 cfs. The
release should start sometime around the end of April and decrease to 500 cfs
by around the middle of June.