FGUS65 KSTR 021945
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
May 2, 2007

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2007 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
and rivers throughout the San Juan River Basin. The observed water year
precipitation to date is 90% of average. Snow water equivalent as of
Mayl 1 was 65% in the Upper San Juan, 55% in the Animas, and 55% for the entire
San Juan Basin.

It is important to note that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely
be determined by hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next few months.


Computed peak flows for four selected points are as follows:


   2006          2007         
River/Site       Peak/Date    Fcst Peak   Normal Peak     Historic Peak
   CFS           CFS        Period            CFS
___________      _________    _________   ___________     ____________

San Juan -       1420, 5/21      1800      5/15 - 6/12         4640
Pagosa Springs

Animas -         3140, 5/25      3300      5/28 - 6/14        10700
Durango

Animas -         3130  5/25      3400      5/31 - 6/15        11000
Farmington

San Juan -       7070, 6/9       7800*     5/21 - 7/4         15600
Bluff

* - Peak flow forecast on the San Juan below Navajo Reservoir include 
the current projected maximum spring release for 2007 by 3 more days of
ramping up to 5000 cfs, 14 days at 5000 cfs and 7 days ramping down to
500 cfs. The release should decrease to 500 cfs by around the 23rd of May.

CBRFC/tjc


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