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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 4, 2008

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2008 spring runoff flood potential is a little above normal at this time
for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. December precipitation was 265%
of average while The observed water year precipitation to date is 110% of average.
Snow water equivalent as of January 1 was 140% in the Upper San Juan and 120%
in the Animas.

It is important to note that it is very early in the snow accumulation season 
and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several months. Although spring
temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and consequently the magnitude
of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond to volumetric flows. Therefore, 
at this time, given normal temperatures and the lack of an intense, heavy rainfall
event during peak runoff, peak flows are expected to be near to above normal.
By the same token, an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy
rainfall during the melt can cause or excerbate flooding problems.

CBRFC/tjc


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