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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 5, 2006

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

	 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2006 spring runoff flood potential is much below average to below average
at this time for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. The Upper San 
Juan and Animas River basins are both suffering one of their worst January's
in the period 1961-2005. The observed water year precipitation to date is 62%
of average. Snow water equivalents as of January 1 were 31% in the Upper San 
Juan and 51% in the Animas. Observed December streamflow and seasonal numbers
were 72% and 119% respectively, the seasonal number reflecting the big October 
rains . The Bluff, Utah values more accurately reflect the low flows at 41% of 
average for December. The spring runoff forecasts range from 17%-78% of average 
with a median forecast of 65% of average.

The current CPC climate forecast indicates above normal temperatures
throughout the basin during the JFM period and EC (Equal Chances) of 
precipitation probabilities. The trend for the next two week period is for
above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. A weak La Nina 
regime usually indicates dry climatic condition in the SW US and that's 
what we are currently seeing.  

It is important to note that it is very early in the snow accumulation season 
and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several months. If current
patterns persist then we will have a very low threat of spring flooding from 
snow melt runoff.


	GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2006 Water Year is dry so far with essentially no snow cover at this time.
This far south, snowpack is usually not the primary cause of flooding.
At this time, the flood potential is considered low. Yet, the potential may
quickly change to high in the vicinity of high intensity rainfall.  However,
there is no rain in the forecast at this time.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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