FGUS65 KSTR 051405
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 5, 2009

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Precipitation in the San Juan Basin for January was 55% of average while
the observed water year precipitation to date is 105% of average. Snow
water equivalents as of February 1 were 115% in the San Juan Basin.

The 2008 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for 
streams and rivers throughout the San Juan River Basin. 

It is important to note that it is still early in the snow accumulation
season and that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be
determined by hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several
months. Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff
and consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly
correspond to volumetric flows. Therefore, at this time, given normal
temperatures and the lack of an intense, heavy rainfall event during peak
runoff, peak flows are expected to be near average. By the same token, an
extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during
the melt can cause flooding problems.

CBRFC/tjc


NNNN
$$